The best predictor predicts parity between the euro and the dollar – Panama America

The best predictor predicts parity between the euro and the dollar – Panama America

Data

• Krpata, which assists in the compilation of forecasts ING Amsterdam along with the head of currency strategy Chris Turner, provides that the ECB will announce called quantitative easing at its first policy meeting this year, to be held on January 22, before providing details on March 5.

• The ECB officials they just said they are evaluating quantitative easing.

PanamaAmerica

Be more bearish against the euro that consensus Overall helped ING Groep NV to become the most accurate predictor of currencies in the world in 2014.

The Dutch firm sees no reason to change its strategy now, opening of the pack to predict a fall to parity with the dollar at the end of two years.

After seeing the currency of 19 countries fell to $ 1.1839 from the highest level of last year from $ 1.3993 in May, ING believes that it will continue its fall up to $ 1 -level not seen since 2002.

The median estimate of more than 30 forecasters who participated in a Bloomberg survey is $ 1.16 by the end of 2016.

ING provides that measures of the European Central Bank to boost the weak economy in the euro zone and avoid deflation have more negative consequences for the euro than most firms.

Few investors will want the currency when authorities increase the money supply, especially at a time when the Federal Reserve of the United States becomes more attractive dollar-denominated assets to raise interest rates.

“We are one of the firms more bearish about the euro-dollar relationship, “said Petr Krpata telephone, currency strategist at ING in London. “It seems that the Fed will soon start raising rates, possibly even by the end of the second quarter, and this will encourage further divergence of policies.”

ING topped the rankings currency analysts Bloomberg during the four quarters ended December 31, rising from second place and replacing the lending institution German Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in the first place.

In one of the best predictors of the firm, ING predicted to early 2014 that the euro would fall 13% to $ 1.20 on December 31, compared with a median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of $ 1.28 at the time. The common currency ended the year at $ 1.2098.

Yesterday a new theme emerged for strategists are bearish against the euro when data showed that consumer prices in the euro zone fell 0.2% YoY in December first annual decline in five years.

That added to the pressure on ECB President Mario Draghi start buying sovereign bonds as part of a strategy to pump money into the economy and bring down the euro. It is expected that the ECB will announce the call easing.