mario.verdusco@eluniversal.com.mx
The World Bank (WB) cut from 3.5% to 3.3% the prospect of economic growth in Mexico this 2015, besides noting various risks associated with oil prices, financial volatility and the election period.
In presenting his report on Global Economic Prospects 2015, the international body said that while the country will have a growth rate above the global average (3%), the engine will push Mexico United States (US), main trading partner and nation that has a more favorable outlook this year.
However, the institution acknowledged that there are risks that could negatively impact on the global dynamics and of Mexico.
One factor is the increased volatility in financial markets generate the imminent rise in interest rates in developed economies.
He also warned about the tension that will generate the l ow oil prices on the balance sheets of producing countries, of which Mexico is one of them.
Just remember that 30% of the country’s revenue comes from oil revenues. The average price of the Mexican crude export set was $ 79 per barrel for the 2015; However, yesterday traded at $ 37.36.
Mexico will have federal and local elections this year, detail the World Bank also considered as a point of attention on economic dynamics.
“In India and Mexico, the weak sentiment for electoral uncertainty and reform fatigue will contain investment at the beginning of the year but will be reversed later,” he explained.
The World Bank perspective for Mexico (3.3%) is almost at the bottom of the coordinate plans to the federal government, which recently joined ranks with their economic estimates and by 2015 is between 3.2 and 4.2%.
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It is also more conservative compared to other international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which provides for an expansion of 3.5%, or the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which has a 3.9% advance.
The World Bank acknowledged that the number of structural reforms adopted in previous years will allow increasing competitiveness and productivity of the country, while raising the potential rate of growth in recent decades.
“In Mexico a series of reforms and their laws between 2013 and 2014 in sectors such as education, energy and telecommunications materialized. The full implementation of the same should eliminate some of the binding constraints to growth in the country, “the report said agency.
The implementation and implementation of structural reforms will raise the national GDP growth, as the World Bank estimates an acceleration of growth rate of 3.8 for both 2016 and 2017.
This scenario places Mexico above the average of the global economy, which in 2016 will have an advance of 3.3%, while a year later it will only expand 3.2%.
Although the growth of the global economy will still be below levels prior to the global financial crisis of 2009, the World Bank acknowledged that developed countries will experience an increase in growth due to the strengthening of the US economy and by the momentum generated by low oil prices.
The World Bank noted that the ability to adapt to global shocks depend on the credibility of the policy of each nation.
In that sense, the agency placed Mexico among the nations that are in a better position to meet the volatile global financial conditions.
The document of the ins titution estimates growth of 3.2% for the US economy in 2015; 1.6% for the European Union; 1.2% for Japan, and 1% for Brazil.
Where recessions are in Russia, where GDP 2.9% and Argentina, where the activity will contract 0.3% fall is expected.
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