The trade show estimates that GDP will accelerate to 1.1% in the second … – Yahoo Finance Spain

MADRID, 10 (EUROPA PRESS)

The Independent Authority Fiscal Responsibility (trade show) estimated that GDP increased by 0.93% in the first quarter and that growth will accelerate to 1.11% between April and June, according to the results the model MIPRED growth forecast GDP and its main components of demand.

year on year and according to these estimates, growth stood at 2.7% and 3.3% increase in the second quarter. For its part, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) -which publish the INE this month– throw a quarterly increase in the number of employed between 1% and an annual 3.4%, a figure that will rise to 1.2 % and 3.7% respectively in the second quarter.

In a statement, the Tax Authority explained that publish on its website from now regularly the results of their model MIPRED forecast GDP growth and its main components of demand and employment estimated at EPA. The trade show has taken this decision for reasons of transparency and considered “useful” public knowledge.

As explained by the body, MIPRED model allows the “detailed” monitoring the impact of different variables on economic activity, reducing uncertainty about the predictions of the major components of GDP from the perspective of demand.

The main contributions MIPRED model over other instruments developed reside in its objectivity, in the ability to replicate their results both for its explicit methodology as for the use of publicly available information, disaggregated information on the macroeconomic picture and the real-time monitoring of the evolution of GDP.

Also, you can observe in real time the influence of the various indicators on the evolution of GDP and contrast the predictions with observed data in reality.

The model, first generates a prediction of real GDP growth based on the combination of economic information of ten indicators with different temporal frequencies (monthly and quarterly) that it is a dynamic factor model.

The publication of indicators that are integrated into the model will update the forecast several times per month, depending become available new information, to obtain a real-time forecast of the trend of economic activity in Spain.

Second, the model generates a growth forecast major components of GDP in terms of demand (private consumption, public consumption, equipment investment, construction investment, exports and imports of goods and services) for the two quarters following the last published by the National Accounts.

FORECAST FOR USE

The picture is completed with forecasts of employment in terms EPA, since the models produce a combined estimate of GDP, its components and employment, which offers a perspective more complete and detailed the state of the economy and is, according to the trade show, “very solid” from an econometric point of view.

The Tax Authority will also release once a month the result of this presentation integrated model. The forecasts are presented in graphical and tabular output another. The first is the expected trajectories of growth in GDP and employment, accompanied by their corresponding confidence intervals. The second offers rates quarterly and annual growth of GDP, its components from the viewpoint of demand and employment

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