Credibility is one of the main values that should have a central bank, generally every agent of the economy, but even more a parent entity within a country.
The Central Bank of Ecuador is the body responsible for issuing the macro data of the Ecuadorian economy, a great responsibility, if there is doubt about their independent actions, no doubt on the performance of the whole economy of Ecuador and both analysts and economic actors in uncertainty we move. And uncertainty is the worst counselor for the economy, more still in times of crisis
However, throughout this 2016 the Central Bank.
1) published in March 2015, a growth figure of 0.3% of GDP in 2015, a figure that many analysts were surprised by positive (and “accidentally” set to predictions President Rafael Correa …! of septiembre¡ six months before).
CORDES analysts found an anomaly in the data reported in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation, which have been forwarded to the Central Bank. The Central Bank has responded, but since then has not responded, because the main question remains unanswered, which still puts more questioning on the figure announced.
2) The Central Bank has not published the forecast of economic growth for this 2016. in principle, said the earthquake these numbers vary. That statement was already quite doubtful, as would have been much more logical publish data with a warning that the forecasts were made before the disaster. By definition, any forecast is made with the uncertainty of what might happen.
But two months and three weeks later, spent more than half the year and still have not published these predictions (of course, It will be much easier to “successful” forecasts when almost the whole period has elapsed). There is no reasonable explanation for it.
The Central Bank is expected to have hid behind data damage caused by the earthquake. For these data, presented by the SENPLADES last June 1, they were also very questioned by many analysts because “coincidentally” were adjusted with great accuracy to what President Rafael Correa calculated “a rough guess” two days later the earthquake as it landed in the country (or perhaps we should admire his “good eye” cubero as did the propagandists of the Government). These data have been presented without the methodology or the raw data or detailed data for us to analyze. They are therefore worthless data for analysis beyond the confidence you can have in your eye-and President Correa good cubero- or Senplades.
Past and half the year, eleven weeks after the earthquake, and five weeks after the publication of the data that is supposed expected to make forecasts, we still expect the numbers.
3) June 30 according to the calendar published by the same Central Bank should have made public the figures of economic growth for the first quarter of 2016. well, at the time of writing, July 8, the Central Bank It not yet has been made public and has not submitted any excuse or justification for this delay, although many analysts (especially CORDES) have already denounced this situation. There is no excuse (but that was not even there explicación¡!) For this breach of one of its fundamental duties as Central Bank publish macroeconomic data with diligence and punctuality. I think that is not valued enough in Ecuador the consequences of these delays have for the credibility of the country and international analysts, who expect the data (logically) be issued on the dates announced.
4) to what does seem to have time the Central Bank is to promote your hackneyed “electronic money” . The Central Bank seems to have become an advertising agency thereof (despite having spent USD 1,200,000 in its promotion) and this promotion is replete with errors, omissions, failures and fabrications.
Errors as saying that the Central Bank “PROVE of the means of payment” (checks and bank transfers, for example, means of payment are not PROVE the Central Bank); omissions, like not listed or the logo or the name of the Central Bank is responsible for electronic money in the promotion page efectivo.ec (except in the small print of the conditions), do not appear all costs of handling this money, when it should be the main information; defaults, because although announced on June 20 that “within a week” the system would be operational for transfers with banks and yet it is not; and also they said that the VAT return is credited with “from the third week of May” and the first week of July have not yet credited to the users; and falsehoods, as when Mr. Martinez announced that they were already two million dollars and the balance of the Central Bank even recorded one.
It is questionable the role of a central bank in dollarization, but which is not questionable is that it does not fulfill its functions.
What is at stake is not only the credibility of Mr. Martinez, nor the credibility of the institution, what is at stake is the credibility of Ecuador
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