The other day wondered a forero the reason that the price dropped, the price dropped also, but the RV did not upload it, if not that also down… In fact, appreciated against the (), one more reason for the european stock markets had a promotion, and yet last Friday, the downs continued throughout the day… The investors wanted liquidity.
how is that why?
we Must look for the answer on the 29th day of October… At that time, the european stock exchanges were on the rise. The had propped up the 9.200 euros for several days… and then suddenly it began to descend until mark 8.750 few days after… Nearly 500 points lost in just 3 days. What was it that happened?
Simple. A simple news. "The FBI reopens the case of the emails Hillaty Clinton"… And this news caused a hurricane… This news gave rise to that Trump ascendiese in the polls and Clinton came down to the point of a technical draw.
how And why low the bag?
No, the bag does not drop, the bag looking for the balance… Days before knowing this news, the analysts of Deutsche Bank (DE:) predicted decreases of 13% in equities if he won Trump and climbs of around 5% if I won Hillary… That was the reason that the RV had risen during the days preceding the 29th of October. Therefore, our selective was in the 9.200 points, because Hillary had a clear advantage in the polls and that is deducted from the market price.
All we took for granted that I would win, Hillary and the shares “hold” things in advance… but when the news about the emails, the surveys were changed and the market has adapted to the "tie". The bags dropped to an intermediate point, such that if Hillary won, finally, would rise the same amount would go down if he won Donald Trump… That point was the average between the forecasts of Deutsche Bank.
The standard “-13% if wins Trump and +5% if what makes Hillary” was adapted to the tie that predicted the new surveys, thus: -9% if wins Trump and +9% if you win Hillary. At this point, what is happening in the bags? You also have to take out the average… rates must come down to that 4% to adapt to the technical draw.
on The 31st of October, when it published new surveys, the Ibex was to 9.171: if we take a 4%, what is left to us? The Ftse to 8.804… 8.791 close actually, if I remember correctly… Pretty close to the prediction.
What happened today? On Sunday we learned that the FBI has closed the case of the e-mails, because it does not have criminal responsibility… and the distance in the polls between Hillary and Trump is now 5 points. So the bags have grown to adapt with climbs in all the places, some spectacular, as the or the , all of them have been appreciated by more than 2% and tomorrow will continue to do so for finish adapt to the new reality.
And now is where comes the complicated part: Who will win?
we don’t know… I personally even think that Trump can give the bell… the "Trumpazo" what we call… and if it does… what will happen to the bags? We will have the second Brexit of the year… If you analyze it objectively, our positions, we will see that if he wins, Hillary, the path to the upside is little, because the victory tomorrow will be reduced almost in its entirety… Yes, yes, the bags will go up after the victory… but not so much as to fall if this is the least likely scenario.
do you Remember the Brexit?
what was Not clear that the water was going to be?… because in the end it was yes.
If we are ready, tomorrow is the day to sell… we will Close all the positions that we can close and we will wait with the pockets full of liquidity… If wins Trump will buy very cheap during the Thursday (Wednesday, yet will be soon, the drops will last a couple of days)… And if he wins, Hillary, we will buy… we will buy in short from everything which has gone up dramatically… and we will win whatever the outcome of the election.
As said by Mark Twain: "it is Not what you don’t know what creates a problem. It is precisely what we know for sure what he will do,"
what we Know for sure that won Hillary Clinton? How much of the liquidity that I have named in the first paragraph, you have if you win Trump?
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