Analysts ensure that short-term policies Trump could lead to a recovery of the economy that would result in an increase of rates of the Federal Reserve.
After the minor adjustment that lived the dollar on Tuesday after the victory of the tycoon Donald Trump in the united States, the dollar in the country has accumulated hikes to historical. In the week, rose $ 125,69.
In the session yesterday, the us currency reached an average price of $ 3.196,09, with an increase of $ 95,97 in front of the Representative Rate of the Market, TRM, $ 3.100,12, an increase not evident in the past 15 months.
Yesterday, the currency opened the day with a price of $ 3.145 and its closure was $ 3.173.
The minimum price was recorded in the platform Set-Fx was $ 3.143,55, while the maximum was $ 3.245.
The amount traded during the day was US$ 440 million, in 1.021 operations.
however, it is worth noting that the official rate of the currency was set at $ 3.100,12 by the Financial Superintendence, to which officials from yesterday until next Tuesday.
why rose?
To the analysts, the days of the past few days began to weigh the possible real-world effects that would have the economic policies of the new president, who despite what you thought in the beginning, filled it with optimism and confidence to the dollar.
"If in the previous session there was a first impact for the emerging, but then leveled off, yesterday the behaviour was the opposite. For investors, it is not as bad as the arrival of Trump power, as their protectionist policies could promote the recovery of the economy and generating inflationary pressures", said Paula Garcia, analyst of AdCap.
In particular, for markets, the policy of Trump focused on encouraging the spending would push the inflation, which, in turn, would lead to an increase of types of the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in December.
"The triumph of Trump generates an upward trend of the dollar. The policies of higher spending and lower taxes that raises the tycoon will produce greater aggregate demand and inflationary pressures, with which it is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates," said Omar Suarez, an analyst of equities of Alliance Values.
For the moment, the likelihood of a rate rise in December is located in 84% and has gone up steadily in the last month. "The monetary policy will be able to address what may happen with the new presidential mandate", added the expert.
After these measures, Colombia, which expects this year an inflation of 5.8 per cent, would not come out well-preserved in the pocket of its consumers, as the dollar is again trading above the $ 3,000, which would affect the basket, which is represented in a 30% by imported products.
historical Production
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Opec, confirmed yesterday that extracted more crude oil than ever in October, at a time when the cartel want to limit their production to support prices.
The increase in production occurred mainly in Nigeria, Libya and Iraq, three countries in war, whose abstractions do not cease to grow in the last three months.
global production of all petroleum products grew in 970.000 barrels per day in a month and 880,000 barrels per day in the last year, as the countries outside of Opec also increased their withdrawals.
The cartel members agreed in September to a reduction of its production, but still need to set the complicated allocation of quotas by countries with a view to its next meeting, on the 30th November, in Vienna.
Rising rates in the U.S.
The possibility that the united States increase its rates gained momentum yesterday, after the statements of the vice-president of the Federal Reserve, the Fed, Stanley Fischer, who reiterated the appeal to boost fiscal stimulus to the economy, something the president-elect, Donald Trump, promised in his election campaign. "It would be helpful to apply a fiscal policy more expansionary".
it is Worth remembering that Trump has sharply criticized the Fed. However, he also promised to fogonear economic growth and create jobs through a major program of infrastructure works, and boost employment, programs, who also promised to Obama, without he had the support of the Congress.
"it Is likely that the rates of the united States to increase more slowly (…) that in previous episodes of tightening" of monetary policy, said Fischer.
The majority of analysts expects the Fed will raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting of December. This increase would be the first in a year.
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