The market fears a reduction in stimuli is accelerated from April 2017 for the recovery of inflation.
Minidesastre in the markets after the second board of the European Central Bank (ECB), Vítor Constâncio, has announced that the inflation begins to normalise in the euro zone. The reading is immediate: if prices go up –the goal is that the situation of paralysis of the inflation is finished once and for always– you will end up ahead of time stimuli. Now the Central Bank will purchase public and private debt at the rate of 80,000 million euros a month.
“In terms of inflation we are beginning to see an increase and we can expect for the spring of next year the rise in prices will lie clearly above 1%,” he assured the vice-president of the Central Bank at a conference in Stockholm. These words have been made to jump all the alarms in the european markets.
This time, Donald Trump has nothing to do with it. Is more, in the united States, the Dow Jones goes up about 0.6%, while the S&P 500 is paralyzed and the Nasdaq falls back to around 1% at the close of the session in the Old Continent.
The Ibex, who had come up this morning a 1.7% to over 9,000 points, has lost the level of 8,800 points. The great refuges of the variable income in times of low profitability in the debt are the big losers; in Spain, and in the Old Continent, while the Ibex is the worst it has been.
The profitability of the public debt, as a result of an avalanche of sell orders, has soared in Europe with the new expectations. The forecasts are that the Central Bank will reduce purchases from April next year, up to a range located between 60,000 and 70,000 million to go down this amount gradually.
The utilities (Iberdrola, Endesa and Gas Natural) and the managers of networks, such as Enagas, Red Eléctrica, Cellnex, and other infrastructure, such as Aena and Abertis have led the falls with setbacks of between 2.75% of Iberdrola, and the 6.23% of Cellnex. These companies are the ones that offer the returns by the dividend higher, and now become less attractive as the interest of the asset supposedly ultra-secure recovers. Also are penalised because they are dependent on funding, is expected to face more in the immediate future. This is what has damaged the socimi Merlin, which has fallen by 4.62%.
bonus Spanish 10-year stood at 1.4%, compared to 1.28% at which it closed yesterday; his Italian counterpart, offers the 1.9% (1.75% yesterday); the French gives a 0.68%, 0.54%, and even the venerable German bund to a decade pays a 0.28% vs. 0.2%.
The banks are the winners in today’s session, but still are unable to counter the fall of the mentioned sectors. Bankia has climbed 4.2%; Sabadell, a 3.69%; CaixaBank, 2%, Santander, a 0.16%; and Bankinter, a 0.1%. Companies with net cash, which do not need debt to finance have also highlighted: técnicas Reunidas, which in addition has presented results, it has increased by 3.77%, and Mediaset has fired a 2.8%.
The belief that the era of the interest rates below zero is about to end –first in the united States, of course– is also passed on to the foreign exchange market. The euro, which came to take off yesterday to 1,13 dollars, falls today to 1,088 units of the green ticket. Futures on interest rates reveal a possibility of a rise in interest rates in the united States of 84%, the 14th of December.
estrategias@eleconomista.com.mx
No comments:
Post a Comment