The discussions on what will happen to the global economy if Donald Trump is elected president of the united States next week are increasing in the last hours of the electoral campaign, in a context in which the only certainty is uncertainty.
The great part of the international press has already bowed by the democrat Hillary Clinton, with which it is difficult to speak of objectivity in the public debate that is given at the global level on this issue; any way it is worth reviewing some of the facts and opinions published in the last few days.
the newspaper ” The New York Times reviewed forecasts of experts of us universities and Wall Street analysts and, for one reason or the other, the consensus is that a triumph of Trump would cause a sharp fall in the markets.
Simon Johnson, of the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) noted that the most possible is that “the bags from collapsing and make it fall to the global economy in a recession” if it requires the republican.
“The policies that are anti-trade Trump would cause a sharp economic slowdown, as they are experiencing the british after his decision to leave the European Union”, he said.
The first domino that could fall in this context -considered the expert, is the fragile banking system europero and, if not contained, would be followed by other actors in a spiral difficult to predict its ultimate consequences.
“anyway, the effects in the emerging markets and all low-income countries would be dramatic,” said Johnson.
The american newspaper stressed that the vision sounds dramatic but that in one way or another is part of a “pessimism shared by many economists on Wall Street, from Citigroup to Goldman Sachs”.
In any case, the newspaper argued that what actually happens is that no one knows what would happen if the eccentric Trump is rising with the Presidency.
“it Is true, the mexican peso would fall from the fear of a trade war -Goldman Sachs estimated a 25 percent drop – and some of the actions of insurance companies would collapse by the uncertainty that the plan Obamacare is in the nothing”, pointed out the journal, even so, no one is sure that there will be no in this context, other sectors that are located on the side of the winners.
Among them, the oil companies or the companies in Health and biotechnology -faced with policies of Hillary Clinton – could make your August, examined the journal.
There are other analysts who indicated that beyond the tough rhetoric of the campaign, its outcome does not dictate the strategy of a few markets already warmed.
What is certain is that the uncertainty continues: the actions of emerging economies fell for the second consecutive week, with what the values of those companies and countries were at their lowest in four months.
Currencies like the mexican peso or the south african rand not spent anything right in the middle of the dissemination of surveys that speak of a parity between the candidates, americans.
In that context, the uncertainty is extended to the own Wall Street, which fell on Monday against negative data in the camp of Clinton, while he still has doubts of how it would behave in a possible government of Trump with the strategic Federal Reserve since confirmed that it did not want to keep Janet Yellen to the front.
The portal of CNBC pointed out, moreover, that if there is a win loose of the democratic candidate would not be such good news for Wall Street, especially if the ruling party will rise with the control of the Senate.
“If Hillary wins and the democrats take the Senate, if one has shares of companies health or financial, is not going to be happy that (the progressives) Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders to try to control the upper House,” said an analyst queried.
In that context, the company, Barclays believed that the index of the largest companies, the S&P 500 could fall by up to 13 percent if it wins Trump.
what of the future? What are the expectations of the markets and the big players of the market could move in a “V” or to continue with the pessimism?
The only fact is that no one knows for sure, and that the global economy is already experiencing a period of great uncertainty, where the consequences of the great international crisis of 2008 are still not resolved clearly.
If the american citizens to produce a result that you add a new jar, will have to see if the consequences trigger a new crisis or cousin of any degree of rationality. (NA)
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