Davos, Switzerland
The prospects for the economy Global 2016 They are better than they value markets, scared because China has been growing at an exponential rate and prices historically low oil, which made them have the worst start to a year in records.
This was discussed at the World Economic Forum Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde; CEO of Credit Suisse, Tidjane Thiam, and the governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, among others.
The risks, however, exist and have to do with the profound transition from economy Chinese, the possibility that commodity price down even more-affecting the countries and Exporters the lack of synchronization monetary policy.
The task has taken on the Chinese government it is threefold and consists of moving the economy an industrial base to a service, change its export orientation to the domestic market and investment to consumption, said Lagarde, who emphasized that even with these enormous challenges China grew by 6.8 percent in 2015.
Thiam, for his part, said his bank analyzes point to a “soft landing” of the economy China and its growth” does not concern us. “
the price of oil, the executive responsible for the second Swiss bank said It is not a problem created by the lack of demand, but by supply and said that net demand for oil increased in 2015 by 1.2 million barrels a day. “
“Low oil prices are good for the economy world, for consumption in the United States, for Europe and for 5,000 million people in countries which are net importers, “he said.
India is a test this, as said its minister of Business , Arun Jaitley, who participated in the same debate at the Davos Forum.
He acknowledged that “oil prices have been useful to sustain the growth of its country, which this year is expected to be 7.5 percent.
About the lack of synchrony monetary policies, Lagarde said that its effect is still depreciating exchange rates some emerging economies and generate capital flows from these and low-income countries to advanced economies.
However, Kuroda downgraded the seriousness of this problem simply he said “reflects the divergence of the financial situation “of countries, while Thiam said that” this is more or less inevitable. “
” If everyone began to leave the expansionary monetary policies could be worse, “said the head of the Bank of Japan.
The CEO of Credit Suisse ruled out any risk of contagion to the banks, because with 44 billion dollars capital “even if there is a greater shock, the system can handle it.”
Contrary to purely economic data as Thiam have caused “excessive market reactions” analysts told how the refugee crisis in Europe and the negotiations of the United Kingdom to the rest of the European Union to develop to prevent output are positioned as high risk factors.
During the debate, Lagarde said the immigration and refugee crisis in Europe has reached a point that must be resolved or it may threaten the survival of Schengen, based on the free movement of persons.
The possibility of a departure from the UK to the EU is a threat that depend on the block until the referendum is conducted in this regard has been committed to British Prime Minister David Cameron.
“The UK For lasting protection mechanisms and agreements to coexist with the Eurozone. These are your goals in negotiating with the rest of the European Union to remain part of it, “said Minister Business British, George Osborne in the same debate. EFE
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