The risk premium is reduced by more than 100 basis points in the last twelve months, up 108 points
MADRID, 31 (EUROPA PRESS)
The Ibex 35 gained 3.6% in 2014 and ended the year above the psychological level of 10,000 points for the first time since 2009. After suffering volatility in the closing stages exercise that led him to venture into losses, the index has finally managed to score his second consecutive annual increase.
Still, the path of the Ibex is located below prospects earlier this year, which pointed to a climbing above 11,000 integers. Selective goodbye established in 2014 10,279.5 points, compared with 9916.7 whole ended 2013.
In this scenario, the index has accumulated two years with advances and moves away from the streak negative three consecutive years of losses by the crisis, after the cuts of 4.6% in 2012 from 13.11% in 2011 and 17% suffered during 2010.
In 2008 the collapse derivative the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led to the greatest defeat selective when it lost 39%, which was partially offset by the momentum of 30% was recorded in 2009. The Latin American crisis in 2002 undermined the Ibex one 28.11% and bursting of the technology bubble in 2000 was a liability of 21.75%, the second and third largest declines in history.
The second exercise in positive Ibex after takeoff from 21% in 2013 starring , notes the improvement of the Spanish economy and the renewed confidence of international investors. Although doubts about the solvency of Spain seem as distant, volatility suffered by equity market throws caution to the claims of the Government that the crisis is over.
The financial sector has made their ‘duties’ and the Spanish banking given by trenching problems after examining solvency of the ECB, which determined that none of the Spanish banks need additional capital. The Spanish financial sector now faces the challenge of a low return to the context of low interest rates.
Still, not all bank stocks have closed the year with gains. Popular and BBVA have gone into negative, with losses of 12.23% and 5.13% respectively. Santander has gained 7.53%, while Bankinter has starred in the biggest rally of a bank, with a rise of 34.37%.
While waiting for new sales of investment held by the Fund Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB), Bankia has continued recovering value and has gained 0.32% annually. Yes, the price of securities of nationalized bank has stayed at 1.23 euros, down from 1.51 euros in the first divestment of Rush FROB in February.
SECOND HALF OF BAD YEAR.
As pointed projections, the club of the 35 most liquid companies maintained an upward trend during the first six months of the year. Thus, selective regained the 11,000 points in the last days of June, although the path is truncated next month with tensions over a potential default of Argentina.
In 2014, Dow had nine months hike, although the second half of the year was marked by suffering major cuts with a December full of doubts arising from the collapse of oil and political uncertainty in Greece. Specifically, the worst month was scored selective in October, also far more volatile month, when it fell 3.2%, the same figure curiously biggest monthly rise starring the Ibex in the year, in May.
The renewed investor appetite for Spain has also been revealed in the evolution of Spanish risk premium for 2014, which ended the last session of the year at 108 basis points. Thus, the spread of Spanish 10-year bond compared to ‘bund’ German has plummeted by more than 100 basis points from 221 points to end of 2013.
THE LARGEST INCREASE 2014.
The values have described different behavior at year end, moving between gains and losses. Specifically twelve companies closed 2014 losses. Abengoa, Popular, BBVA, DIA, Endesa, FCC, Indra, ArcelorMittal, OHL, Repsol, Sacyr and Techniques Reunidas
The most significant annual progress they have Annotated Jazztel, which has catapulted nearly 61.33% last year. They also noted for its smooth running Red Eléctrica, Enagas, Bankinter and Acciona.
Iberdrola has become the best of the great values, with an increase of 20.76%, followed by Santander (+7 , 53%).
“The collapse in oil prices and most commodities in the second half of the year has come to stress the markets, rather than have motivated uploaded by the very positive implications having in Western economies, “said the strategist at IG Daniel Pingarrón.
Pingarrón has also influenced the decline in volatility in the Ibex, despite what happened in October and on some days December. In particular, he recalled that the difference between the lowest level of the year (9,400 points) and maximum (11,200 points) stood below 20%, versus 30% and 50% in 2013 and 2012 respectively.
THE IBEX. LEADER ALSO IN EUROPE IN 2015
Looking ahead to 2015, Endesa back to selective after resuming on 22 December, the experts consulted by Europa Press await the Ibex maintain its momentum to regain the 12,000 points, with an upside of 20%. Recovery also consolidate the normalization of Spanish risk premium, would close between 70 and 90 basis points next year.
IG analyst expects the European markets could have a better performance than the American for the first time since 2009, and even glimpsed the Ibex reposition the lead for the third consecutive year. “In any case, 2015 is presented more conducive to maintaining dynamic positions, which for the classic ‘buy and hold’” he says.
Meanwhile, XTB analyst Jaime Diez explained to Europa Press that 2014 was “a bad trading year again highlight the advisability of investing directly in indices to avoid the extreme volatility of the shares and achieve more stable results.”
So, he explained that up to 19 values have concluded the year with lower returns to selective, including classics such as Repsol, Telefonica and BBVA.
Looking to next year, the analyst predicts a “far more complicated for exercise bags “, considering that elections approach in Greece and, later, regional elections in Spain. Then it will be time to analyze “the real impact” can in the markets.
From his point of view, the indices continue to seek improvements in data growth to rise or, failing that, the commitments of central banks to continue to create money indefinitely. “Overcoming 11,500 points would be a milestone for the Ibex 35, which could quite easily give up the 8800-8600 points in the worst case” has advanced
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