The global potential growth rate has decreased in recent years due to the aging population and lower productivity, said today the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Although this trend came to appreciate since the beginning century, the Fund said the financial crisis as the turning point of this slowdown in potential growth rate, ie the rate of growth under stable inflation.
In the years prior to the Great Recession, the potential growth in advanced economies came to be at 2.4%, while between 2008 and 2014 this was reduced to 1.3% on average.
Looking the future, the institution headed by Christine Lagarde only provides a slight acceleration to 1.6% in 2015/2020.
The Fund looks particularly affected by these circumstances to advanced countries, including Japan, Canada and Germany, and ensures that the only way to counter this trend is to advance structural reforms in order to improve the training of workers and strengthen research and development.
The IMF also proposed as a solution conjunctural take advantage of low interest rates currently generalized to increase public investment in infrastructure.
Also in emerging economies begin to appreciate these factors and the potential growth rate fell to 6.5% between 2008 and 2014, 2 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the crisis, and will be around 5.2% over the next five years.
These data are part of the so-called analytical chapters of his report header “Global Economic Prospects”, whose expected recent growth forecasts for the global economy will be presented at the spring session, organized by the World Bank in Washington next week. EFE
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