Paris, France, in February. 22, 2016.- Oil prices will not recover in the short term, although the gap between supply and demand can be balanced in 2017, it seems unlikely that the rise in the barrel is pronounced, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA ).
in its report on the oil market for the next five years, the IEA justifies this view of low prices for “abundant resources” current, but also by the “tremendous technical innovation” that allows industry companies take extra oil to the market at a cost much lower than a few years ago.
it recognizes that in the latter part of the forecast period (2016-2021) there is a “risk” of a pull on oil prices as a result of inadequate investment in exploration and production (expected to fall back to 17% in 2016 after the 24% found in 2015).
But the IEA also notes that due to technological and organizational changes, extraction costs have been reduced (almost 26% in the US in just over one year).
on the global demand, it estimated that it will increase at an average annual rate of 1.2% by 2021 (the symbolic bar of 100 million barrels will be exceeded in 2019 or 2020), which is below the 1.7% average recorded between 2009 and 2015 percentage point.
the agency, which brings together the major energy consumers in the developed world, warns not to expect a barrel to 30 dollars continue to stimulate this progression, as happened in 2015.
the bulk the increase in consumption will come from Asian countries which, excluding Japan and South Korea, will absorb 23.7 million barrels in 2015 to 28,900,000 in 2021. Only China, and will need 13.6 million barrels this past year, 2.5 million more than in 2015.
the other side of the coin are the OECD countries and particularly European, with declines in consumption in these five years of 500,000 barrels per day (up to 13.1 million barrels) .
on the supply side, the United States and Iran will be the countries that are going to increase production.
Thanks in particular to the technology to exploit deposits schists, US production has increased from 5 million barrels per day in 2008 to 9,400,000 in 2015.
And while the collapse of prices has ended this progression (in early February were extracted about 9 million a day), the IEA 2021 adventure USA will market 1.3 million additional barrels compared to 2015.
in the case of Iran, the embargo should assume that the extraction of crude oil increase by one million barrels to reach 3.9 million in 2021.
the agency has revised downwards, for its report last year, expectations of production in Brazil by the impact of low prices, but also the corruption scandal at Petrobras. In any case, the Latin American giant is one of those who experience greater progression from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2015 to 3,400,000 in 2021
At the other end, Russia will see its production reduced to 10.8 million. barrels a day in 2021, which will mean 275,000 barrels lower than its record 2015 because of the decline of mature wells that will not be offset by new ones where investments have been postponed.
Mexico, for its hand, should continue in their downline and go from 2.6 million barrels per day from 2015 to about 2.4 million in 2018, which should make a point of stabilization thereafter.
as for Venezuela the IEA estimates that the severe cutback in investments (those provided by PVDSA 2016 are 63% lower than last year) will entail stagnation of volumes of extraction (2.42 million barrels per day in 2021 compared to 2.46 million 2015).
overall, the collapse of crude oil has led to members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to spend 1.2 billion dollars in revenue in 2012 to 500.000 million in 2015, which will remain at about 320,000 million this year if the price remains at current levels.
TFO
No comments:
Post a Comment