“The output would create great uncertainty about future alternative trade agreements in the UK, both with the rest of Europe and with important markets like the US, Canada and China,” said the laureates.
Date: 06/20/2016 8:02:07 Ten Nobel economics prize on Monday warned about the negative and lasting consequences that they believe would cause the output of UK Union European (EU). “We believe that the UK is economically better within the EU,” they said in a text published in the British newspaper The Guardian.
“Businesses and British workers need full access to the single market. In addition, the output would create great uncertainty about future alternative trade agreements in the UK, both with the rest of Europe and with important markets like the US, Canada and China, “said the laureates between early 1970 and 2015.
“And these effects,” they added, “perdudarían for many years.”
“Consequently, the economic debate is clearly in favor of continuing in the EU”, sentenced, three days before the referendum to be held on Thursday.
the signatories of the letter are George Akerlof (United States, Nobel in 2001), Kenneth Arrow (USA, 1972), Angus Deaton (UK, 2015 ), Peter Diamond (USA, 2010) James Heckman (USA, 2000), Eric Maskin (USA, 2007), James Mirrlees (Britain, 1996), Christopher Pissarides (British-Cypriot, 2010), Robert Solow (USA, 1987) and Jean Tirole (France, 2014).
the British Finance Minister George Osborne welcomed the letter. “Unprecedented ten economists Nobel laureates warn of long-term damage of exit from the EU. It is time to listen to the experts,” he tweeted.
The debate during the campaign, in and outside the country, it has focused on the economic consequences of Brexit. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Bank of England and even US President Barack Obama have advised against leaving the block.
All scenarios for two years covered by the international economic institutions are grim. A study by the British bank HSBC predicted a devaluation of the pound by 15 percent to 20 percent, inflation of 5 percent and a loss of 1 percent to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
the IMF estimated meanwhile that the British nominal GDP would be between 1.5 percent and 9.5 percent lower in case of departure and said that London could lose its status as a global financial center.
Five potential consequences
the output of the European Union in the referendum of June 23 could have important consequences. Here are some of the most anticipated:
1- resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron
Although Cameron has reiterated that it will continue in office, “would not last or 30 seconds, “said Kenneth Clarke, the Conservative Party. Cameron has put his credibility at stake calling a referendum that has fractured the Conservatives, and then defending permanency. Conservatives would have to appoint a successor and the victorious leader of the pro-Brexit, Boris Johnson, it seems the natural candidate.
2- The United Disengaged?
the head of the Scottish regional government, Nicola Sturgeon, has repeated on numerous occasions that leaving the EU would take them to claim another independence referendum if the Scots voted in favor of staying. But the Scots could vote in favor of the EU and not necessarily convinced of independence, according to a recent survey.
Meanwhile, the British province of Northern Ireland live a fragile peace process. Theirs is the only British land border with the EU, with Ireland, so should reinstate border controls and that could lead to tensions. Brussels has injected billions of euros to support the Peace Accords Good Friday, 1998, which ended three decades of fighting between Catholics and Protestants. The Nationalists, in particular, consider Brussels as a counterweight to the British government.
3 With the EU, a divorce uncertain outcome
The country begin difficult negotiations with the EU, which could be extended up to two years, and the conditions of access to the single market in London they would be decided. Several scenarios are possible. For example, they agreed to a mutual access to markets, but under what conditions? The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has warned that “the UK will be a third state will not have the paved road.”
4 A difficult economic transition, even a recession
the impact on markets delBrexit immediately jump to the eye with a sharp drop in the pound and bags. All scenarios for the next two years covered by international economic institutions are grim. A study by HSBC predicted a fall in the pound by 15 to 20 percent, inflation at 5 percent, and a loss of 1 to 1.5 percent of GDP. The City would lose its status as a “European passport” and several companies like JPMorgan and even the British giant HSBC announced that it would move thousands of jobs to Paris or Frankfurt.
5- policy tightening immigration
immigration has been one of the central themes of the pro-Brexit campaign, which has announced its intention to create a point system for immigrants accept Australian copied. Each application for residence and work permit would be treated according to the skills and qualifications of the applicant. Once consummated the divorce with the EU and to free movement, nothing would prevent implement this policy.
No comments:
Post a Comment