Already adventure a superdólar driven from the government Donald Trump, president-elect –but not yet in functions – which will touch parity with the euro in the new year to come.
The monetary implications mean that while the u.s. currency strengthens, the common european currency weakens, in part, because the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) could continue in 2017, with a zero rate and its policy of stimuli.
While, in the united States, the advisors of first-level feel porfiados to raise interest rates, and disdained to continue, prolonging the settings of the last 8 years, in Europe, on the contrary, the feeling is that the economic recovery is also weak, some shaky. There is that amacizarla.
however, the risk of not satisfying what the Federal Reserve next year is, in truth, quite courageous on the part of the ECB, and that denotes the degree of confidence and reliability internal towards the european institutions and their decision making.
In Mexico, it’s the opposite: The Bank of Mexico is very attentive to the events of adjustment of rates across borders, and it seems to me that is reacting in the right way. There is the aztec country, and its economy, another way to anticipate and sobrerreaccionar to raise interest rates.
The mexican economy has in against to be a popup player, and that involves confronting an ingredient of speculation and volatility attached.
you Have to be quite skilled to, in 2017, moving the dice, taking on against a strong dollar and high interest rates that will allow the united States to continue "sucking" money from other parts of the world.
This is the trump card of Trump to get money, oxygen financial to the American Union, because, in addition, their risk premium is low, and its reliability is very high, characteristics of the levels of emerging, such as Mexico.
A pop-up will have a complicated scenario, but not impossible; in my opinion, will depend on its ability to manoeuvre; poor Venezuela, with all-in against you; not even a slight relief in the petroprecios will help to relieve the extremely high social tension and civil breathable beyond its borders.
After the 20 of January we await long months of a year that we all wish were too short (there is a certain chill in the body), but I repeat what I have already written in other columns: "Every crisis creates an opportunity"; there where a few lost, many others earn, and is not, necessarily, the product of speculation.
UP
The day of today, in the aztec market, a dollar is changed for 20 pesos and a euro by 20.96 pesos; after Trump takes office as president is quite predictable a new milestone on the type of change.
we have Already spoken of forecasts close to the 23.50 for the next year; it all depends on the statements and intentions of the mogul, of the way how the fabric of international go digesting and a reliable way to go crystallizing their maneuvers protectionist.
Although, since then, it is unthinkable to suspect that everything will end up serving in their first year of mandate; there will be less three more years, if is that the establishment let him finish.
To the global economy, a euro compared to a dollar you will have various consequences, especially for countries that had taken refuge in the common european currency and that they wore year after year using it as a reserve currency. Is not negligible, nor illogical, let’s look at selling euros to buy dollars; nor laughable in Mexico reach a time in which the equivalence is to be taken as something rather natural, and not with this level of panic.
A 20.50 or 21 weights could be the fulcrum for the parity of the euro versus the dollar, in respect of the currency aztec; in terms of impact on the trade balance mexican already know the consequences: A dollar and a euro stronger reducing exports aztecs and slow down a little bit more imports from the united States and the countries covered by the euro.
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