The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned yesterday that Argentina “disappoint the expectations of growth” in 2016, by which he tempered his forecast of a recovery in the short term.
In its review of the world economic outlook, the multilateral agency credits revised down their expectations of economic performance in Latin America.
according To the new forecast, Latin America will have to grow in 2017 1.2 per cent (up 0.4 percentage point below forecast last October) and 2.1 per cent in the next year. This box, pointed out by the IMF, be explained by “a lesser expectation of short-term recovery of Argentina and Brazil”, countries that showed in the second half of 2016 “growth figures that disappointed expectations.”
In the case of Brazil, the IMF forecasts that the south american giant to close this year with growth of 0.2 percent, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage point compared to the previous report. The agency has not modified its expectations of advance of 1.5 percent in the next year.
But in that downward revision, the IMF also said the “headwinds stronger” that Mexico faces in the wake of the uncertainty about the economic policies to be adopted by the president-elect of the united States, Donald Trump.
therefore, lowered by 0.6 percentage point to his expectation of the economic performance of Mexico for this year and the next, and now expects a growth of 1.7 percent in 2017 and 2 percent in 2018.
Even before assuming power, Trump launched a frontal offensive against automotive industries in the united states (or subsidiaries of foreign firms, such as Toyota) for making investments in assembly plants in Mexico for the u.s. market.
According to the body that leads Christine Lagarde, the reduction of the expectation of the performance of Latin american this year, is also due to the “deterioration in uninterrupted of the situation in Venezuela”, which goes through a hard economic crisis.
The Fund warned of “a lesser expectation of short-term recovery” for Argentina, because it had a growth rate lower than expected during the second half of 2016.
The paper projects a growth of 2.7 per cent for the argentine economy this year and 2.8 per cent for the that comes.
The world
The IMF had forecast a rise of the global economy of 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent, for 2017 and 2018. In respect of policies that could be developed by Trump and his impact on the world economy, the report notes that “there is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes around the projections, given the uncertainty that surrounds the direction of the policies of the us government incoming and its international ramifications”.
The multilateral agency of credit provides for “true fiscal stimulus in the short term and a normalization less gradual monetary policy”, which would mean a rapid increase of protectionist policies and an increase in the rates in the united States.
In that sense, the IMF highlighted “a possible roll-over into platforms of political isolationist and protectionism, a deterioration of global financial conditions more pronounced than expected, which could interact with the weaknesses of the balance sheets in parts of the euro area and in some market economies”.
The projections also speak of “a strengthening of oil prices”, following the agreement reached with the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to limit supply.
The work does not rule out tensions between the united States and China and projects a growth of 2.3 per cent and 2.5 per cent for the country that will Trump and 6.5 percent and 6 percent to the economy of the asian country.
“The outbreak of a trade war could be very destructive,” said the chief economist of the IMF, and Maurice Obstfeld.
Trump threatened to impose higher rates to u.s. companies that manufacture in Mexico and China and threatens to take his country of Nafta, the free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, if not renegotiated.
Prior to taking possession Trump managed to stop the plans of expansion in Mexico of u.s. companies. And took review of the low in these two years, the IMF outlook for Mexico, a country that became an enemy during the campaign.
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