In the first week, the country has been shaken by violent protests against the rise in gasoline and blows protectionist Donald Trump to collapse the listing of the weight.
Just when the mexicans afforded by the new year entered in force increases of up to 20.1% in the gasoline and 16,15% to diesel, in the beginning of the liberation of fuel prices, subsidized for decades, a measure that sparked looting unpublished shops.
While the fury was breaking out in the streets, to pressure the president-elect Donald Trump and a decline in demand for compact models, the automotive company Ford canceled a project by $ 1,600 million to build a new plant in the northern San Luis Potosi.
This dragged the peso, which closed the week with a loss of more than 3,00%, while the Bank of Mexico (Central) was forced on Thursday to intervene in the market for the first time since February of 2016.
The currency had already depreciated 16,12% in the past year, struck above all by the triumph of Trump, who wield imposing strong protectionist measures.
– Clouds of storm –
With these factors, in addition to a strong fiscal deficit and a risk-inflationary, Mexico faces a "perfect storm," summed up in statements to the press by the president of the American Chamber Mexico, José María Zas.
The analyst Raul Feliz of the Center for Research and Teaching in economics, agrees that the outlook at the start of 2017 is not the best for Mexico.
"the uncertainty over The trade policy that will face Mexico with Trump, clouding the picture and making it difficult any calculation. The most important thing is to see how it’s going to change the rules, because if you choose tariffs to imported goods could lead to the mexican economy into a recession," said Happy to the AFP.
This uncertainty in the prelude was Trump’s "sticks to the type of change and complicates investments in the medium or long term", underlines Happy to point out that in the first half, the mexican economy could enter into recession.
If it achieves a good agreement with Trump the economy "repuntaría in the second half, otherwise we would be in a situation much more delicate to the end of the year and 2018 would be worse for the presidential election".
Zas prefer not to advance catastrophic scenarios and asked them to wait to "see the end of the party."
"Until they have clear rules, I think that here about six months there will be uncertainty," added the entrepreneur to reject that other firms follow the path of Ford.
The mexicans breathed for moments Thursday when a television station said that the controversial border wall proposed by Trump would be paid with federal resources but the republican replied by Twitter that "it will be paid for Mexico after."
Effect– protests –
And between the uncertainty of what will happen in the White House from January 20, entrepreneurs and small traders warn of dire economic consequences for the violent protests by the gasolinazo and the wave-inflationary, that could spark.
Until Thursday, 800 small and medium businesses and more than 250 department stores had been looted and in Veracruz (east), where there have been violent looting, the dome business called the "apocalypse".
Analysts wonder if these protests are spontaneous or orchestrated by opponents, social groups or even organized crime.
"we don’t know yet who is this," he told the AFP Luis Carlos Ugalde, an analyst and former president of the National Institute of Elections.
"What is clear is that there are many groups in many regions of the country that are willing to use any event, any situation, to disperse the problems of violence", he added.
Peña Nieto has recognized that the purpose of the subsidy to gasoline is a "difficult change", but he justified that it was necessary to maintain economic stability and fund social programs, which match both Zas as Happy.
The president of the American Chamber acknowledges that this unexpected violence is concerned, but discards them to investors, who, however, are closely following the potential inflationary effect of increased fuel.
"investors were more concerned about what you are doing Trump the protests, but if they go out of control and unleashed general chaos then yes it will be another negative factor", warns, however Happy.
(AFP)
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