The key dates of the markets in 2017 – The Economist

A 2016 full of surprises shift to the market gives way to a 2017 conditional on the policy and by the central banks.

The political events have sparked two of the biggest ‘shocks’ that have lived through the financial markets in 2016. The referendum of 23rd June in the Uk gave an unexpected victory to the supporters of Brexit, and only a few months after Donald Trump got a victory against all expectations in the presidential elections in the united States.

The drastic changes that caused in the markets these political developments have raised if it should be the role that granted the investment firms to each one of the appointments policies featured for the next exercise.

Elections in Europe

hence that highlight the relevance of dates as 23 April and 7 may. France to vote on the formation of a new Government that will take over the lead by François Hollande. The analysts faced with caution this appointment, by the latent threat of a new political earthquake, due to the rise of the far right Marine Le Pen.

Europe will face another election transcendental in the final stretch of the year, on a date yet to materialize, after the end of the summer. It is then when Germany, the largest economy of the eurozone, decide if you renew your confidence in angela Merkel, in power since the year 2005, or if you opt for a change of direction.

The calendar that includes the investment firms to 2017 was still in the air-the celebration of other crucial elections for the eurozone. The defeat in the referendum of last 4 December led to the resignation of Matteo Renzi as prime minister of Italy. The political crisis has been settled, for the time, with the formation of a new Government without the need to go to the polls, although analysts do not rule out completely the call for early elections during the year.

waiting To see the new direction of politics in the united States with the arrival of Donald Trump to the front of the White House, investors are closely watching the political developments and especially the economic contribution the other big global potential, China, during the celebration at the end of the year of the Congress of the Communist Party .

The Fed will set the pace of the monetary policy

Another type of policy, the monetary, will mark the path of the financial markets in 2017. A priori, all the attention will fall on the Federal Reserve of the united States.

In 2016, only rose once the interest rates. But for the next financial year, the Fed itself already shuffles three raises of the interest rates. If you meet the expectations on inflation and the labour market, the analysts do not rule out a fourth rebound throughout 2017, which would mean that half of the eight meetings scheduled for the next financial year concluded with rises in rates.

The European Central Bank has a margin of manoeuvre much more reduced. At its last meeting extended until December 2017 its bond purchase programme which ended, initially, in the month of march. Except surprises, the ECB will be limited to maintain unchanged interest rates throughout the next year.

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan may approve further adjustments in their monetary policies as a response to the Brexit and the effects of ‘Abenomics’, respectively.

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