cartera@eluniversal.com.mx
The win left the group in Greece yesterday generated volatility in financial markets, which are waiting for the definition of the new government’s austerity policies and discussions to be held with the Troika (made by the International Monetary Fund, Central Bank European and EU).
The fact that the markets have initially opened lower, but then closed with gains, due to the election result in Athens was offset by optimism generated by the injection of 60 billion euros from the European Central Bank for purchase of assets as a measure to stimulate the economy.
The euro opened down 2.12%, but ended operations with an advance of 0.27% against the dollar, while the main European stock markets ended the first day of the week higher, although the stock market Athens fell 3.20%.
There are fears that the new Greek government not onl y opposes the measures imposed by the Troika, but also because there is a risk that creditors for payment of the debt of Greece is unknown, such as the IMF and the ECB, CIBanco said analyst James Salazar.
The new Greek government has the Feb. 28 deadline to renew financial commitments to their rescue; according to analysts, as the date approaches and start listening statements tuning the campaign promises of SYRIZA have speculative market reactions.
The authorities of the Troika and the new prime minister will meet soon to reach a solution and specify the future of the nation.
The head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, was willing to work with the new Greek government, but warned that Greece “must respect the rules of the eurozone”.
In the Dutch Finance Minister also reviewed, currently “there is a lot of support” fo r a debt restructuring.
Given the uncertainty that prevails in Europe, investors will try to move their money to other regions, which will seek markets with higher yields and less volatility and this could be positive for Mexico, said the Bank economist Go for More, Dolores Ramón Correa.
Many factors are weighing on the euro and Greece is one of them, but do not put aside the biggest impact is the ECB QE, he said. In fact, the reason that this mechanism is implemented to weaken the currency and have an advantage in exports since become cheaper relative to foreign Dolores said Ramon.
For James Salazar, volatility has been contained in the short term because the victory of the left in Athens anticipated, but each new Greek government statement that calls into question the plans for improving your finances cause movements in financial markets.
220;There is a real concern about the situation in Greece, which currently is not reflected by the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB monetary expansion.
“While markets and took for granted the victory of the left, as starting new government’s statements that go against the measures imposed by the Troika, be volatility in the markets, especially in those days there absence of relevant economic data, “said Salazar.
He stressed that are complicated an exit of Greece from the eurozone, as it is expected that the new government comes to negotiations with the European financial authorities and the IMF.
“The worst scenario is that agreements are abandoned and involve leaving the government of Greece from the eurozone, which would have implications for Ireland, Spain, Portugal,” he said.
However, the consen sus anticipates there will be a modification of the terms of negotiation, that while there is little room and in the process bouts of volatility is submitted, it is expected the proposals to reach a new agreement are taken into account, he said Salazar. With information from agencies)
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