The government of Syriza assumes fiscal targets required by their creditors, and makes concessions it had previously refused, as the pension reform or increases in VAT
There are differences between one position and another still, and lack depth analysis by the troika (European Commission, ECB yFMI), but after a preliminary analysis, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said Athens the latest proposal opens the door to reach agreement this week.
The pension reform was one of the great workhorses of the government of Syriza, the radical left coalition that governed Greece from January and had promised not to cut them. So far Athens had always offered much lower savings to creditors calling. But this morning the proposal sent those red lines intersect: instead of lowering pensions, raise taxes to pensioners and early retirement hardens
On the verge of collapse
As. it happens, the thread of hope came at a critical time, with the Greek financial system to collapse by the flight of deposits, and nine days a maturity of 1,500 million euros with the IMF, whose default would open the door to the control capital and possibly to a parallel currency. The bags received the news with euphoria: the general index of the Athens Stock Exchange rose Monday 9 percent
The Heads of State and Government of the euro area analyze the situation from the 19 hours at a time. Euro extraordinary summit convened last week, just after the derailment of negotiations among finance ministers in Luxembourg. Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, said they are the first “real proposals” for Greece in recent weeks.
A deal would free 7,200 million euros in the second Greek rescue, and financing that would soften ECB attaches to Greek banks. Both would release the pressure that now grips Greek finances.
Next steps
Community sources say that no final decision on the agreement today is not taken. This could come in the next ordinary summit of Heads of State and Government, scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Brussels.
The finance ministers of the euro zone yesterday could not validate the Greek proposal, because the technicians of the troika had no time to analyze in depth the proposals. The Greek Government sent the documentation on the brink Sunday midnight and then sent another corrected this version Monday morning.
Many of the ministers showed their anger to get to Brussels and advised to lower expectations Meeting of Heads of State and Government of the night. Community sources claimed yesterday that this is due to a matter of form, as they travel to Brussels asked for anything. However, there was also a matter of content: minstro German Finance Wolfgang Schauble said, for example, could hardly see progress in the new Greek plan
With an eye to the European summit. Thursday and Friday, the three institutions have at least today and tomorrow to scrutinize all the Greek proposals and certify whether permitted or not meeting the targets established primary fiscal surplus: 1% in 2015, 2% in 2016, 3 % in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018. If at the end of the assessment is positive, or just let some more politicians close fringes, finance ministers of the eurozone will meet again to validate the agreement.
But that would not be the end of the tug Greek. Once the leaders agree, we must overcome two further obstacles: the approval of the parliaments of Germany and Finland, on the one hand and, on the other, the adoption of measures by the Greek government.
Both Berlin, Helsinki and Athens can have a bad shot, as both parties have given respect to their initial positions and have hard cores with de facto veto power. But who has it worse is Tsipras: 20% of its members refuse to accept any concessions. Or at least I have said so far
The latest proposal of Athens
Overall figures. Greece provides tax measures amounting to 2.692 million euros in 2015 and 5.207 million in 2016, (1.51% and 2.87% of GDP respectively)
• pension savings: Athens now offers savings of 660 million in its pension system in 2015 and 1,860 million euros in 2016. To this year, the figure is still below the annual target that marked the creditors (1,800 million euros).
• higher taxes on pensions: Instead of lowering gross pensions, the Greek government will lower net pension increase tax contributions of pensioners.
• Delayed retirement age: The Hellenic executive now proposes delaying the age of retirement at age 67 in 2025. In its previous plan that happened in 2035. It also harden early retirement, which is looking for savings of 360 million in 2015 and 2016.
• VAT: The Greek government has three VAT rates (the creditors demanded two), but raises the intermediate type
(11% 13%) and draws products from lower rates. This aims to raise 680 million this year and 1.360 million next.
• Corporate: corporate tax goes from 26% to 29% and provides for a special tax of 12% on profits of more than half a million euros
@ funds. eleconomsita.com.mx
No comments:
Post a Comment