MEXICO CITY, Mexico, in July. 03,2015.- The plan of the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, to hold a referendum on Sunday on austerity demands of its creditors has led to the breakdown of negotiations, forced the closure of banks and put into question the future of Athens within the euro area.
The result of the vote remains unclear, but whether the Greeks choose “Yes” or “No”, face a new period of uncertainty and political turmoil.
The following are the main possible scenarios after the vote:
WIN “Yes” to the bailout terms
The Government left Greece has openly urged the Greeks to vote “No”. It would be political suicide for Tsipras implement a program that has called repeatedly for “humiliation” for his country and who has opposed vehemently.
Tsipras has hinted that he would resign if the result is “Yes “saying the Greeks on television this week:” If the Greek people want to have a prime minister humiliated, there are many of them out there I will not be one of them “
If Tsipras resigns, the.. country would aim to early elections that would take place in September.
But since Athens faces major expenditures to repay debt this month and is on a peak of the financial crisis that has forced him to close banks The president probably prompted the formation of a provisional government “national unity” to continue the talks with creditors and keep Greece afloat until the elections.
To form such a government would not be easy. The parties in favor of the euro as the centrist To Potami, the center-left PASOK and the conservative New Democracy have indicated their willingness to be part of that executive. But together they only have 106 seats of the 300 in Parliament.
This would mean that Syriza and its minority coalition partner-the right party Independents Greeks would have to support or join the government to function. That government would probably be led by a technocrat.
Former Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis made a rare appearance urging Greeks to vote “Yes” spreading rumors that he could be a candidate.
A national unity government would not be the first in Athens. The last time Greece flirted with a referendum. – In 2011, when former Prime Minister George Papandreou sought one before abandoning the idea and Executive dimitir- a technocrat backed by the major parties it replaced until elections were held the following year
Some say Syriza responsible in case of a vote for the “Yes”, the Tsipras itself could choose to stay and try to keep negotiating with creditors under the premise that Greece goes to the polls when finances are stabilized in September.
Those responsible for the euro area have openly spoken in favor of a vote for the “Yes”.
The Chancellor Angela Merkel has said it would be prepared to negotiate a third rescue package for Greece, although German officials are skeptical about whether there might be a new pro-bailout government and a third package negotiated for July 20, when a key expires debt payment to the European Central Bank.
SE VOTE “NO”
Those responsible Greek government say a majority vote for the “No” would strengthen the bargaining position of Greece regarding their creditors, a prospect that the leaders of the euro area, including the head of finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, have strongly denied.
The Government of Tsipras has said it would resume talks with creditors immediately. But European leaders believe it would be very difficult to agree on a new bailout for the “No” would be interpreted as a refusal to compromise with creditors.
The leaders of the euro area have warned that a victory of the “No “point to a rejection of the euro and close the door to greater support from creditors, leaving the country in unknown and isolated area within the block.
Greece is likely to end without paying the ECB on 20 July and you will see a rapid deepening of the crisis, with banks likely will not open by uncertainty.
The ECB may continue freezing or stretching emergency funding to Greek banks, putting more pressure Tsipras while trying to reach a agree with a bank collapse.
In return, it could force Tsipras to resign to pave the way for a national unity government. The Executive may also decide to issue a parallel currency or notes to weather the crisis, which effectively put up a Greek exit from the euro.
LLC
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