” when the left has arrived. On Monday, national humiliation is finished . We will finish with the orders coming from abroad, “said Alexis Tsipras in his closing speech of the election campaign that consecrated Prime Minister .
That Sunday January 25, when the victory of Syriza was confirmed, he deepened his idea to the crowd of fans celebrating. “You are an example that the story is changing . Its mandate it is undoubtedly end bailouts and austerity destruction . For Greece, the Troika is something the past, “he said.
The country entered 2008 with an almost terminal crisis. Victim of a weak institutional framework , which allowed successive governments spend far beyond its means , and uncontrolled debt to solve the waste, the outbreak of the international financial bubble unmasked the mayhem committed.
“We’ll finish with the orders coming from abroad,” said Alexis Tsipras
poverty, It shot unemployment climbed to 25% and the economy collapsed. In that context, it had to pay the million-dollar debt he had contracted with your creditors. The only way out was to accept a ransom in exchange for which the Troika, consisting of the International European Commission, the European Central Bank and the Monetary Fund, demanded harsh fiscal adjustment measures , to ensure recovering I paid
.
In late 2014, after six years of many sacrifices for the Greek people, with hikes in taxes and cuts in wages and benefits, economy began to show signs of recovery warm . The accounts were balanced and had first emerged from recession.
Emboldened, the Prime Minister Antonis Samaras , training center-right New Democracy, called elections. It ignored what little they cared about these macroeconomic data to a public tired of having to settle for survival and, above all, humiliated by what felt like a punishment imposed from outside.
If Tsipras achieved such a resounding victory was because, interpreting social unrest, told people exactly what they wanted to hear . He promised that with him in power external constraints would end, there would be no more adjustments would lower taxes and wages would again increase. How could I not vote for him?
“Tsipras’s proposals were pure fantasy”
“Their policy proposals were pure fantasy. The problem in Greece is that of a bloated state and an economy with low productivity and competitiveness . Its entry into the monetary union far from being exploited to make the necessary structural reforms thanks to cheaper credit, it only served to oversize further the administration, government spending and unsustainable social benefits . The debt thus reached percentages of stroke “says Salvador Forner Muñoz , Professor of Contemporary History at the University of Alicante, and specializes in economic and political integration of Europe, consulted by Infobae .
“The previous government seemed to have entered the only possible path to recovery, it can not be anything within the monetary union, the balanced budget , liberalization and deregulation. Syriza’s experiment was a lap down and a waste of time that will generate a deep social frustration over the wild promises, now are going to be broken, “he adds.
Just six months after taking, and just a week after a referendum called by himself ratify the refusal of Greek citizenship to support more adjustments imposed by Europe , Tsipras renewed the rescue accepting virtually all conditions of the Troika, much more severe than those agreed by its predecessors.
“To the extent that most of the population, according to polls, does not want to leave the euro, obviously Tsipars was forced to adopt this package . There was no other option for Greece. If he wanted to stay in the euro had to make adjustments, “he says Federico Steinberg , Senior Analyst, International Economy Real Instituto Elcano, Spain, in dialogue with Infobae .
“Tsipras ended up saying yes to everything”
Besides not get any debt relief agreed to further cuts, raise VAT, reform the pension system to ensure a zero deficit, set New regulations on strikes and collective bargaining, create an independent audit to audit the established fiscal targets, advancing with new privatizations and accept a constant monitoring of the Troika on public accounts. In other words, the exact opposite point by point, to what he had promised before assuming.
“I did not no plan b to carry out . He waited until the last moment to exert any pressure on creditors, but after the referendum result was clear it was going to be impossible. Then decided to sacrifice his pre-election position and do everything possible to ensure that Greece remain in the euro “, says Infobae Elias Dinas, associate professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Oxford professor.
“ Tsipras said yes to all he continues, except for the idea of creating a fund State assets by 50,000 million euros, which would have been even more humiliating. But it is the only one of the initial postures that was not signed. The rest is the plan of Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission), and it is even harder than we imagined in the referendum “.
The problem of populism
The big question is why, if the main analysts agreed that was not going to carry out what they promised, insisted blindly. Part of the answer is that there was a strategic error . A misreading of the European stage, probably caused by inexperience of the main leaders of Syrisa, more accustomed to university faculties and political rallies that public management.
“ Tsipras miscalculated . He believed that Germany and the other countries in the region would give in to the threat, fearing that Greece could leave the euro. But it was a miscalculation . He also thought that the call for the referendum would strengthen its position in the negotiations, but that was not possible at this time. For it would have simultaneously a victory of many leftist governments in Europe, and so could make a common front, “says Steinberg.
” miscalculated. He believed that Germany and the rest were to yield to the threat “
” I thought the blackmail referendum would be able to obtain better conditions to exit the economic quagmire in which he found himself says Muñoz. So it could strengthen its leadership in Syriza and get broad support from the public. But enough a position of some strength in the Eurogroup to disrupt their plans and make him accept many unfavorable conditions that previously had been offered aspects “.
But another part of the answer is even more worrying. When ideology-not matter which one-is so ingrained in the minds of a leader who becomes a dogma, it loses the ability to see reality with pragmatism that needs every good ruler.
“ What happens is that Syriza It is a populist party . He promises to capture voter dissatisfaction with the previous government and fatigue with austerity. It was very convincing in line with tougher negotiation would be able to get something else. But none of that was fulfilled. It was a very irresponsible attitude, doomed “says Dinas.
Even as which enhanced their chances of winning the elections was moderating his speech, the origin of his approach had something very clear:. if Europe did not adapt to the new demands of Greece had no choice but leave the euro and the strength to conquer economic independence Why do not He took it to the end? Because, once in government, had no way to ignore that consequences of that move before proclaiming they would have been dire .
“Syriza is populist. He promises to capture voter dissatisfaction “
” The exit from the euro would be catastrophic for Greece says Steinberg- because the economy would fall Additional 20% , and would have the possibility of external support. It is true that in the medium term could perhaps recover, but bear in mind that the country has spent five years with falling labor costs and a strong depreciation of the euro, and even then exports have recovered. “
“It was not like in the case of Argentina in 2001-2002, which could quickly be made export natural resources . The situation in Greece is much more complicated, and a serious social problem, possibly humanitarian emergencies will be generated, “he concludes.
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