7:07 p.m.
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AFP .-
The growth in Latin America will continue to “slowly over an extended period” , due to political and macroeconomic challenges in several countries, especially South America, said this Friday IMF chief economist for Latin America, Alejandro Werner.
“In general, for the medium term is expected to remain weak growth , which stresses the importance of resolve internal challenges, “said the expert.
The International Monetary Fund estimated Tuesday that the region will close the year 2016 decline of 0.3% , in recession for the second consecutive year. By 2015, the regional contraction is also projected 0.3%.
“In a global context, as projected, will remain weak, we expect the region to grow slowly for a extended period “Werner told a news conference in Washington.
Earlier, a five-page document released by the IMF, Werner had stressed that this scenario Two straight years of recession occurs first “since the debt crisis of 1982 to 1983 , which triggered the” lost decade “for the region.”
“ The region continues It is particularly vulnerable to a further slowdown than projected in China, one of the most important trading partners for the region-and to further falls in commodity prices, “he said in the document.
The main concerns of the IMF is mainly concentrated in two South American economies: Brazil, a giant that closed 2015 declining 3.8% and fall 3.5% in 2016, and Venezuela, which suffered a fall of 10% last year and in 2016 will have a recession that the IMF estimated at 8%.
Heavyweights in trouble
These two countries suffered strong impact of global scenarios: falling commodity prices, to Brazil, and the general collapse in oil prices to Venezuela . But both have internal problems to deal with.
In the case of Brazil, Werner said that the IMF identified a combination of “macroeconomic fragilities” a scandal involving businessmen and officials, and problems typically political.
This explosive mix, Werner said, “has paralyzed the investment and dominates the economic outlook”.
“The resolution of the uncertainties in the politically and in the field of economic policies is essential retronar to positive growth rates up, “he added.
Werner said” discuss if Brazil is in a recession or depression it is not appropriate for now . I think, however, that the numbers show the urgency of restoring certainty in a path of financial control and control of the public debt “.
In Venezuela, distortions economic policy and fiscal imbalances had already generated a scenario of instability problems “were aggravated when the drop in oil prices triggered an economic crisis, with a fall in output estimated almost 18 percent during 2015 and 2016 “.
With regard to Argentina, Werner said that the new government initiated a transition to correct imbalances ” macroeconomic, an approach that has ” improved growth prospects “, but the country will close 2016 recession than 1%.
Werner said Friday that the IMF noted the declared intention of the new Argentine government to reinstate access protected Article IV, noting that it is “good news” but that for the moment there has been no formal contacts on this issue.
The good letter
Meanwhile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile are among those who have done good letter in 2015 and this trend should be maintained in 2016.
For the IMF, Peru closed 2016 with growth of 3.3% (2.7% in 2015), with Colombia will advance 2.7% (3% last year). Mexico will grow 2.6%, on an advance of 2.5% in 2015, while Chile maintained growth in 2016 of 2.1% recorded last year.
From According to the IMF, Central America closed the year with growth of 4.2% , 3.9% more than last year, while the Caribbean you would advance 3.9% (4.3 % in 2015).
The countries of the two blocs “have benefited from the fall in oil prices, a stronger US growth and rising remittances, but the recent weakening of world prices for coffee and bananas could reduce the momentum “.
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