Economic growth in the euro area recorded in 2015 best result in the last four years , but the outlook for 2016 are not encouraging , growth in China and calms restless optimism.
last year, the economic growth in the euro zone was 1.5% the best since 2011, according to the first estimate of the European statistics agency, Eurostat, published Friday, although slightly below the forecast last week the European Commission (1.6%).
fourth quarter of 2015 the increase was 0.3% , confirming the forecast of analysts.
these figures are “little relief” as analysts observe that although growth was maintained in the second half of 2015 (0.3% in the third and fourth quarters) expansion slowed in relation to the first part of the year (0.5% in the first quarter and 0.4% in the second).
“As a whole the economic recovery in the eurozone continued its modest cruise in the fourth quarter, “said Teunis Brosens, an analyst at ING bank.
While noting that” in the midst of recent storm in the markets (…) this positive news seems almost a ghost of a remote past. “
According to the latest available indicators” seems unquestionable that the repose growth in domestic demand, “ said Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.
for Archer, factors” domestic “continue to underpin economic activity eurozone, including lists, the low price of oil and raw materials, a competitive euro and stimuli of the European Central Bank (ECB) held near zero rate and its main directiz that will keep your program unprecedented debt purchase.
But the horizon is not yet clear. Jonathan Loynes, chief economist at Capital Economics, the available data for the euro zone “suggest that growth was supported by investment and public expenditure superior” , whereas public investment will not be the long a bra for economic expansion.
While “ apparent slowdown in household expenditure and net trade suggest that the fuel that powered the growth, falling oil prices and the euro, would be starting to dissipate. “
the eurozone is not immune to falling emerging
Next to GDP, Eurostat published industrial production for December, which fell 1% after recording a contraction of 0.5% in November. For the whole of 2015 industrial production in the 19 members of the euro zone grew 1.4%.
“The weak industrial production makes it clear that the Eurozone is not immune to weakness in emerging markets, leaving only a faltering US economy, “said Teunis Brosens.
therefore, the GDP growth in the last quarter was” relief “for analysts. to Jonathan Loynes, chief economist at Capital Economics,” seemed unlikely after learning the figures of industrial production in December. “
Germany , the bloc’s largest economy, recorded in the second half a mild slowdown in its economy and closed the year with a 0.3% expansion. for all 2015, according to the first estimate of Eurostat, the growth was 1.4%, below the forecast by the Commission (1.7%).
Spain continues to “lead the expansion.” Eurostat estimates that the fourth bloc’s economy recorded a GDP growth of 0.8% in the last quarter, unchanged from the previous, and showing a slowdown compared to the first half.
But even so the data are evidence of Spain’s dynamic economy. According to Eurostat the expansion in 2015 was 3.5%, higher than three tenths to the forecast by the Commission, who described the Spanish economy as “robust” with a sustained expansion in domestic consumption, low prices pretroleo and competitiveness the euro in international trade.
the second bloc’s economy, France, failed to take off in the fourth quarter, when it registered 0.2% growth, one tenth less than in the previous quarter. In 2015 the country recorded an expansion of 1.2%.
Although Ireland missing data from the last quarter, available information published by Eurostat show an expansion in three quarters 2015 5.5% data available.
to support growth analysts do not rule out the need for further action by the ECB. As for growth prospects for 2016 the Commission predicts that there will be an expansion of 1.7%, but given risks in the euro zone in the world economy analysts have to reduce it.
No comments:
Post a Comment