Betting on the future market dollar grew exponentially in the second half of 2015, on par with growing chances of then candidate Mauricio Macri and in economic terms, since the market was convinced that , who won garase, it would be impossible to sustain for long the almost fixed exchange with the former minister Axel Kicillof obsessed. Cheap fiction dollar would hold until the end of the government of Cristina Kirchner and is costing the Central Bank more than 50,000 million pesos.
The temptation to buy a cheap coverage and the invoice the Central Bank to pay the led to between Rofex and Electronic Open Market contracts are recorded for the equivalent of 15,000 million dollars. In all cases, the seller was the Central Bank. It is important to stress that the operations are agreed and settled in pesos. So the bill is paid more emission pesos. No reservations dollars at stake in this business.
This is a market “price differences”. What is at stake is the difference between the amount fixed in the contract and the reference price, since the operation is contracted until the day the contract expires. If the Central delivery weights, is the difference between quotations. No disburses pesos for the dollar. On Monday all contracts expire on February 29 agreed to. But the difference between the contract price and price market already settled, and it only remains to be paid the compensation, if any, depending on the price of the dollar on Monday
See also: Bonadio he quoted a statement from Cristina Kirchner for the future dollar
the furor over the “dollar future,” explains easy with this example. Alejandro Vanoli sold dollars payable March 31 to $ 10.80. Obviously, the market was betting that that date would be a higher rate of change. In fact in those days what here was sold at $ 10.80 in New York trading at about $ 15 it was the main argument of the complaint now leads the Justice Cristina, to Vanoli and Kicillof. What happened?. The day the dollar and the exchange rate was freed jumped to 13.80, the Central paid the difference 3 pesos per dollar.
The BCRA money desk under effective control of Axel Kicillof, flooded with cheap futures market contracts with the strange idea that could well dampen expectations of devaluation. It must be emphasized, as stated above, which are operations in pesos, and that differences between contract prices and market each day are compensated every 24 hours. The operation works like this:
* Someone bought a future dollar notes due March 31, 2016 to $ 10.80. The purchaser agrees to pay that price on March 31. The selling party agrees to sell the dollar at 10.80. From the day the transaction was agreed and until the due date, the difference between the contract price and the reference price of each day, is settled daily.
* is what happened 15 December. When the dollar was released and its price jumped about 14 pesos, the Central Bank paid a serve nearly 45,000 million pesos to those who had bought dollars to $ 10.80 on average. Today that bill now exceeds 50,000 million pesos.
* What is settled is the difference between the price fixed in the contract and the reference price of each day. And the whole operation is in pesos, taking into account the official daily value reporting Central. Contracts can be bought and sold all the time. It is not necessary that the buyer keep in his possession the purchase contract until maturity. You can sell at any time.
As the dollar continued to rise after the devaluation of December, the Central continued to put pesos, to make up the difference between the $ 10.80 agreed in the contract and the closing price .
to reduce the bill, the dollar forced the Rofex to apply a rebate on certain contracts agreed after the September 30 last year.
No comments:
Post a Comment