The Brexit would damage the British economy and cause a recession, according to the IMF – swissinfo.ch

International AFP

June 17, 2016 – 23:47

the logo of the International Monetary Fund at the headquarters of the institution in Washington on May 16, 2011

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the output of the UK the European Union (EU), to be decided in a referendum in less than a week, would damage the British economy, which could fall into recession in 2017, said Friday the IMF.

the Brexit, as is called to the British break would open “a prolonged period of uncertainty that could weigh on confidence and investment and raise the volatility of the markets,” said experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its annual review of the economy UK.

After the Brexit “negotiation of new (economic) conditions could last for years,” they added.

IMF experts drew up a report on the macroeconomic implications of Brexit and they warned two scenarios: a “limited” and an “unfavorable” if the output “does not pass well,”

in the “limited stage” UK growth would fall to 1.7% this year and then to 1.4% in 2017 compared with 1.9% and 2.2% respectively expected today for both years.

The “adverse” scenario would imply a fall in recession of -0.8% in 2017 and 0.6% growth in 2018

“in case of an unfavorable scenario, the consequences would be negative growth”, confirmed in a telephone conversation an IMF official.

the unemployment rate, currently under 5% for this year and next year, would rise to 5.3% in 2017 if the damage is limited.

In the worst case scenario that rate would be 6% in 2017 and 6.5% in 2018. Inflation, on this stage, would be 4% in 2017 from 1.8% currently expected .

If most British approves break with the EU, London must start very complex negotiations with Brussels to break the current political, legal and commercial ties with the other 27 countries of the Union.

Asked if the break would bring some benefit to Britain, a senior IMF official said that one of the assumptions is “in the air” it is that the UK economy specializes in services and CEASE their manufacturing and agricultural sectors .

“we do not see that as a plausible scenario,” he said.

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