Britain is probably the most multicultural country in the world and four decades after it joined the European Economic Community -precedente of the current European Union (EU) – faces on the 23rd of June 1 of the most important political decisions and determining its rich history: to be or not European. After
mostly winning elections in May 2015, Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron felt solid and in response to pressure within his party and his own cabinet, he announced that the British would decide on the continuation or not in the Union European. On February 19 referendum convened Thursday but maybe he not measured the lance and this you can play tricks. Several polls give a slight advantage today of 5 points No to the European Union (53%), but rates fluctuate rapidly. In late May, the preference was 50/50.
However, the relentless daily barrage of information and ongoing debates at all levels about the importance, scope and effects that would result from the referendum in this island kingdom, have failed to clearly identify a majority preference for stay in the European Union (EU) or exit the block, which is popularly known today as Brexit (Britain-Exit).
on June 5, 1975 67.5% of British confirmed the permanence of the UK in the European Economic Community, in another referendum then summoned by the Labour government of Harold Wilson, who in 1967 had submitted the second bid británica- to ratify the integrationist vocation. Britain lived a process of industrial development and diversification of production in the middle of the oil crisis and union struggles for higher wages
But today the atmosphere is different, with a clear trend.; discontent and fear of ordinary citizens with the substantial increase in levels of migration that has received Britain in the last five years, exacerbated by the crisis in several economies of the European continent, the EU accession of 13 new countries since 2004 and Community fundamental principle of the free movement of persons, considered by supporters not as a “straitjacket” that prevents efficiently control borders and limit the number of people entering the country to live. In addition, fussed visa exemption for Turkish citizens (there are fears that the advantage to settle in the EU) and the subsequent formal accession of the country in the relatively near future, but for now indefinite.
National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that if Britain leaves the EU does not negotiate preferential agreements with the single market, would have a deficit of 28 billion pounds instead of a surplus of 10.3 billion expected for the year, and that cover a tax increase by 9.3 billion, and cuts in social security spending equal number will be required.
that pessimistic scenario and threatening and government warnings about the adverse economic effects that would come out EU, including recession, possible price increases, new taxes and political isolation, has generated panic and uncertainty, falling FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange, volatility in financial markets and disempowerment of sterling. The traditionally strong British currency has weakened by 14% against the dollar. Earlier this year one lbs trading at $ 1.65, today is worth 1.42.
key partner
La EU is a priority for Britain economically. 44% of its exports are carried out the bloc’s member countries (imports only 8%), but that strong inter-relationship is governed by common rules and elaborate regulations and discussed at the EU institutions in Brussels for civil servants not depend directly from governments and have not been democratically elected.
Make the club has a cost that according Brexit means a budget contribution of 350 million pounds a week, which they say could be reversed internally in the national health system (NHS), schools and housing construction. However, reimbursements received Britain exemptions, loans and contributions to the private sector and universities, reduce the figure to 8.8 million pounds per year (2014/2015), ie 169 million a week.
the belief that EU regulations limit the British independence and have led to much of its laws dictate them Brussels has been efficiently exploited by the leaders of Brexit; Michael Gove, the current Minister of Justice of the conservative Cameron government, and the phlegmatic and indecipherable former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, who a month ago said that the EU is a project to create a super-state as wanted Hitler and unify Europe under a single authority. “Napoleon, Hitler, several he tried to do, and ended tragically,” he said.
The message of the followers of Brexit, among which are five cabinet ministers and part of the conservative bloc is precisely “recover our Great Britain “,” our own destiny and sovereignty “and maintain relative autarky and the difference with Europe. And the truth is that a good part of the British non-European but members of a separate island from the mainland by language, tradition, a historical antagonism and own values and traditions that consider that distinguish them and have in common with Europe feel .
This is noticeable even in official matters and dependencies. For me it is always significant that when I go to a post office, I find the announcement: “It’s going to go to Europe. Buy insurance “. More so, the National Bureau of Statistics says literally that “The UK has a population of 63.7 million people, of which 5.3 million (8%) are non-British and just over half of them -2.9 million ( 5%). – are in Europe “
hidden History
Britain first applied for admission to the former European Economic Community (EEC) the August 9, 1961, in the process of “decolonization” of their domains in Africa, the Caribbean and Asia; the end of the “British Empire”. At the same time French President Charles de Gaulle negotiated self-determination for Algeria, which would lead to the independence referendum in 1962.
Although a European bloc is not conceived with Britain on the sidelines, de Gaulle vetoed the adhesion due his suspicion by the trans-Atlantic relationship (close British ties with Washington). But mainly because the general, who led the French Resistance in World War II never forgot the American plan “without Vichy Vichy” supported by Britain, which provided for turning France into an Allied Protectorate at the end of the conflict and impose the dollar as official currency.
always considered the project a betrayal of the Allies, who only recognized him as head of the French government on October 23, 1944, but was not invited to the Yalta Conference on February 11, 1945.
De Gaulle vetoed twice British income (1963 and 1967) and the accession process only came forward after his resignation in 1969 by political instability in France that generated the movement “in May 68 “. The negotiations ended successfully in 1972, when the Conservative government of Edward Heath managed to overcome the opposition of much of the anti-European British public opinion. In the political rise within the conservative Margaret Thatcher, supported the process.
Twelve years after its first formal request, Britain, along with Denmark and Ireland joined the bloc. Despite the favorable position of the government that had negotiated membership, Norwegians rejected membership in a referendum.
New realities
Después 27 years living in Europe, first in the mainland and the last 15 in Britain, I have admired, studied together, worked with the European Union and covered journalistically process and the fundamental transformation after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of communism and the “cold war”.
Indeed, De Gaulle always wanted a Europe independent of the two superpowers faced in the “cold war”, but paradoxically the French leader, although advocated by strong Europe to the United States and the Soviet Union, never believed in a politically united Europe and always defended France’s independence and its role power. That same independence is today claim and defend supporters Brexit tired of commitments that are required to Brussels.
Certainly the European Union has changed much in recent decades and has increasingly control over the daily lives of the British and also of all citizens of the other 27 countries that today are part of the group. Decision-making power is diluted in Brussels and pressure on the four major countries and major contributors to the EU budget (Germany, France, Britain and Italy) has increased substantially.
How always stressed Claude Roosens, my professor of European Studies at the University of Louvain, the European Union is a OPNI (unidentified political object) in permanent construction. It began with six founding countries in 1957 and today there are 28, with five more to their doors and 2 other potential candidates.
When Britain joined in 1973, was called “The Europe of Nine” and his population was 290 million people. After various extensions, including the reunification of Germany in October 1990, spent 510 million has estimated the EU today; a population increase of almost 76% !.
subsequent extensions to 2004 with the entry of 13 new countries, meant little more than 100 million new EU citizens, who are guaranteed freedom of movement and residence in any country in the bloc. And the five new candidate countries (Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia and Albania) account for 87 million citizens. Potentially is a European Union of 600 million citizens in Turkey, the eternal candidate, would become the second most populous block (76 million) after Germany (81 million) country.
The relationship EU with Turkey dates back over half a century, when in 1963 signed the Treaty of association (Ankara Agreement) on September 12. Two years before my arrival in Europe, the April 14, 1987, Turkey submitted its formal application for membership and December 31, 1995 came into effect the Customs Union. Four years later in Helsinki finally accepted the nomination and 6 October 2004 agreed to start negotiations, which began a year later after overcoming opposition from Austria and Cyprus, conditional on Turkey to recognize Cyprus, to abandon its occupation of the northern part of the island and out reforms in civil rights and liberties including respect for the Kurdish community. Negotiations are ongoing.
Foto: AFP
Continue in the Union
From the historic European Council in Maastricht on December 10, 1991, changes have accelerated. I clearly remember that at that summit that I covered for El Espectador and other means, Margaret Thatcher managed to break the opposition of Francois Mitterand and get to Britain the exclusion clause (opting out) labor policy, a fee refund in loans and investment (rebate) and London financial markets were not regulated by Brussels. In return, Britain agreed to the treaty that created the European Union, supranational powers, foreign and security policy, judicial cooperation and home affairs and European citizenship. And he pledged to remain a key player and bringing the annual budget. At that time there were 12 countries.
A quarter century later, David Cameron, continues to advocate British participation in the EU and other countries managed to agree to other new rules including exemptions discriminate against citizens Union- to try to ensure the continuity of the country on the block in the referendum on Thursday.
Britain is authorized to suspend access to employment benefits for newcomers EU workers for four years since start work. The moratorium has a maximum term of 7 years. At that time, all British workers and EU citizens and residents themselves may receive aid. In addition, subsidies for children of newly arrived workers will be awarded depending on the standard of living of the country of origin and for the children of those already working in Britain, the measure will apply from 2020.
the agreement reached by Cameron cutting social benefits of the new European migrants theoretically alleviate pressure on government coffers and better control scheme “labor tourism” workers who come to collect unemployment insurance in Britain and not in their country of origin. In addition, decongest the National Health Service (NHS), which is overwhelmed by EU citizens who come to receive free care.
Cameron has defended in his speech in favor of continuing in which he called European Union “reformed” that Britain would never adopt the Euro (common currency in 19 member countries), no discrimination by having another currency, and the financial center of London maintained its objection and services will not be covered by the rules of the Euro zone.
According to the Minister of Interior, Theresa May, remaining in the EU it is essential to ensure “collective protection against terrorism” and is better for the country to be part of the Club follow the path alone. However, the government has not clearly touched the immigration issue which worries the common British and has also shelved the issue of border controls.
In turn, the Bank of England has warned that the Brexit can cause an even greater fall in the pound, with the risk of freezing investments, increase the value of mortgages and loans to businesses and citizens, and also damage the economies of countries using the Euro, the “eurozone “. The British account deficit, which depends on foreign investment, could also be seriously affected. The own governor of the Bank, the Canadian Mark Carney, announced that there is a contingency plan for a massive injection of liquidity to the serious impact it could have on the financial markets the output of UK EU.
Brexit
En rather than attract followers, warnings of the campaign for continuity in the EU “a decade of uncertainty,” they seem to have strengthened the supporters to get out and lack of clarity from the government on the immigration issue has been remarkable. Minister Theresa May has just said if Britain continues, “should look no further reforms” to the free movement of people.
76% of Britons believe that the current level of immigration is unsustainable (330,000 in 2015 ) and 57% believe that would drop to get out of the EU. The figure is almost three times the quota originally considered by the government and may be higher considering the latest wave coming from Spain; -in more than 100,000 mostly young people 20 to 35 years including Latin American nationalized fleeing the country’s economic crisis and unemployment and looking for a job opportunity. Five years ago were the Poles, who with 853,000 living in Britain are now the largest group of an EU country. But much returns after several years working hard and have made a capital. Latinos, among whom are also Portuguese and Romanian instead remain.
If you win the Brexit, the minimum for the withdrawal of Britain from the EU period is two years, during which continue to abide treaties and laws of common merco but will not take part in decisions that will be negotiating the withdrawal of the agreements and the new terms of its relations with the 27 countries of the group. In practice, this process can take much longer (one speaks up to 7 years), while all agreements are dismantled and is negotiated, it reorganizes and approves the new legislation and treaties.
Proponents retirement indicate that they may establish new free trade relations with allies like Australia and New Zealand, Canada, the BRIC countries, especially the British Commonwealth of Nations (Commonwealth) with 53 member nations is a block of 2.3 billion people.
it should be recalled that Norway and Switzerland (another island country but in the center of Europe), rejected in a referendum before making the EU while Iceland postponed the presentation of his candidacy. The three countries, based on their resources and relative autonomy, considered more valuable independence and have preferred to continue their relationship with the European Union through the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This intergovernmental organization was created in 1960 on the initiative of Britain to promote economic cooperation and free trade. This type of negotiated treaties is the solution proposed by leaders not in response to the current relationship with the EU. The government claims that the reorganization of all economic legislation 40 years will be a very complex process that cause financial instability and at least two years of austerity.
As a curious fact, EFTA has its official headquarters in Geneva and Brussels, and since 1984 maintains close cooperation with the EU and free trade zone with it. Today also has free trade agreements with Mexico, Jordan, Singapore, Chile, Lebanon, Tunisia, Korea, South Africa, Egypt, Canada, the Cooperation Council of Persian Gulf and Colombia (since 2005), among others. This is the idea considered leaders Brexit should succeed in the referendum Thursday
Boris. European anti-European
The internal political background , hidden by debates on migration, recovery “of destiny”, the “dictatorship of Brussels” and the economic bill of the British contribution to the EU should not be forgotten.
it is the battle for I power between Cameron and bizarre Boris Johnson, whom I met personally in Brussels when I was a correspondent for El Espectador in the 90s Both arrived to the “European capital” in 1989 and live the vibrant years of the presidency of Frenchman Jacques Delors and permanent tensions between Margaret Thatcher and Francois Mitterrand, in which German Chancellor Helmut Kohl was the conciliator.
with Boris, correspondent for the Daily Telegraph (1989-94) shared days of debates and European Councils, but no banks. In Brussels, Boris, with John Palmer (correspondent for The Guardian) it was openly one of the leaders of euro-skepticism and permanent criticism of Delors, the Commission and EU regulations. Margaret Thatcher considered it his favorite journalist because that position expressed in their articles. I instead believe in the integration process.
25 years later, and after being Mayor of London for two periods (2008-2016), Boris saw his chance, he distanced himself from his friend and leader the conservative party, David Cameron and his media power to command launched Brexit. It was vital to propel the campaign and analysts believe has given at least 10 extra points at the option of not.
Boris, the second politician most trusted by Britons, has achieved the effect of to see the EU as an enemy monster of a thousand heads and Brexit mobilized in favor of the conservative, business sectors and much of the older generation 40, which constitutes 49% of the population critical mass. Voters from 18 to 40 make up less than 30%.
Alliance convenience
La key referendum have it today young people (mostly pro-European and open to cultural exchange), entrepreneurs who consider beneficial the European workforce, banking and financial markets, and the Labour Party in opposition and minority after the overwhelming David Cameron victory in the general elections of May 2015. All its leaders, including exPrimeros ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, campaigning for continuity in the European Union. Clearly, Scotland and Wales, two of the other nations that have favored with the support and EU economic projects, will vote to continue, but they constitute only 13% of the population. England is 84%
In London, the capital of the kingdom and example of integration and multiculturalism, will deliver on Tuesday 21 last battle before the polls.; the debate between Boris Johnson and his successor Sadiq Khan, a defense lawyer of human rights, labor, the son of Pakistani immigrants and from May 7 the first mayor of Muslim origin in a European capital. Khan aims to massively mobilize the Labour Party, which has failed party leader Jeremy Corbyn in the referendum in 1975 voted against following in the European Community and now defends permanence.
But Boris the euro-skeptic, despite having studied at the European School of Brussels and have Turkish blood among his ancestors, is the perfect political animal, the “Kicker” that aspires to be Prime Minister. Winning the No, will be the new leader of the Conservatives and Cameron would have to hand over power after the defeat.
Voting closes at 10.00pm -10 minutes before sunset- and 4.00am the Friday, 24 June (10.00pm on Thursday, Colombian time) at the time of dawn, the result of the referendum will clear. It will be one of the nights shorter and crucial summer in British history. How will the new day?
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