RTVE.es/AGENCIAS
The four large economic analysis institutes in Germany have significantly lowered forecasts that made jointly for first power of the euro in 2014 and 2015, and have recommended it to Berlin to increase public investments.
These agencies have cut German growth to 1.3% this year and to 1.2% in 2015 , from 1.9% and 2% who foresaw last April. This represents worse estimates published this week by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which calculates progress of GDP of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.
The macroeconomic picture posed by institutes estimated that third quarter of this year Germany will skim the recession , recording a growth of 0.0% between July and September, after contracting 0, 2% in the second quarter. For the last three months of expected a rise of 0.1%.
In a subsequent hearing, the German chancellor Angela Merkel acknowledged that the lowering of forecasts “not surprised” to the Executive, which is “ready” to take measures to promote investment and reduce bureaucracy.
More public spending, but prioritizing infrastructure and R + D
In fact, the economic institutes advise the German government “increase the public spending in areas with potential to contribute to growth” .
Oliver Holtenmöller, specialist of the Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH), has said that not a great program temporary boost for Germany believes necessary, but that the government conduct an “ rational prioritization” of the country’s needs and raise investment in infrastructure and research and development .
Ferdinand Fichtner, an expert at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), in the current context of low interest rates, small deficit would still allow substantial debt reduction public.
The Economist Institute for Economic Research of North Rhine-Westphalia (RIW) Roland Dohrn, meanwhile, stressed that in Germany now agree a under-utilization of productive capacities government surplus , both of which hinder growth potential .
According to the report released Thursday, the economic climate “has cooled significantly ” for Germany, because of the weak exports arise out of a slowdown in the euro area and the geopolitical tensions and domestic demand , both consumers and businesses.
Among the issues that weigh on europe locomotive stands, according to these experts, the weakness of the global economy and, in particular, the euro area, the -Ukraine geopolitical uncertainties, Iraq, Middle East – and the flimsy domestic demand.
Criticism social policy measures and zero deficit
In addition, the report points out, the German Government-a grand coalition of Conservatives and Social Democrats -.’s not helping their economic policy and to encourage short-term GDP or to raise the growth potential long
On the one hand, experts warn that measures character social imposed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to enter the Executive-the minimum wage, early retirement or improving aid to mothers are costing jobs and long-term destabilizing sustainability system.
In addition, doubt the economic effectiveness of efforts of Chancellor , Angela Merkel, and his henchman, the Minister of Finance, Wolfgang Schäuble, to maintain at all costs the zero deficit in the accounts of the federal government.
Fichtner believes the desire consolidator Executive , one of the key betting Merkel in Brussels for the euro zone out of its crisis “ is not appropriate at this time” . So keep defending institutes moving toward a balanced budget, but moderating the pace .
In addition, experts have pointed out that the Government can do more in fiscal policy , and have indicated that the measures that could be implemented to enhance the competitiveness and growth are a lower taxes for businesses and spurs investment .
The biggest monthly decline in exports since 2009
Indeed, the blow to the German foreign sales has become evident with data Aug -published Thursday- the same, reflecting the largest monthly drop in the past five years .
In particular, German exports totaled 84,100 million euros in the eighth month of the year, 5.8% less than in July and last 1% below the August 2013 .
In addition, this data adds to the recent literature on industrial production and orders , which also recorded sharp falls in August, the steepest since 2009.
It is very common that the conclusions of these institutes influence the Government’s own , will release new forecasts next Tuesday. In April, Berlin stood at 1.8% growth this year and 2% to the next, which represent a sharp acceleration Regarding the results of 2012 (0.4%) and 2013 (0.1%).
Regarding the latest measures taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) to revive the economy of the euro countries (rate cut to 0.05% and massive liquidity injections), German experts consider only provide “limited impulse” to the activity.
As for Unemployment , consider playing this year lows ( 6.7% ) and raised to 6, 8% next , increasing by 55,000 the number of people out of work.
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1% this year and 1.4% next, according to experts, that do not perceive a widespread risk of deflation in the euro zone despite downtrends in some economies, and consider that inflation expectations long term remain below the block, but close to, 2%.
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