Spain will be the euro economy grows more year … – La Voz de Galicia

Spain will be the euro economy grows more year … – La Voz de Galicia

There are few allusions to Spain containing the latest report on the prospects for the world economy prepared by the IMF. But we know that the good, if brief … Experts say the body that are ‘surprised’ welfare-for what has happened in Spain, where, highlight ‘growth has resumed, supported both external demand [exports] and increased household consumption, reflecting the improvement in financial conditions and greater confidence. ” And have revised upward again, the assumptions on the growth rate of the country’s economy this year and next.

Just a year ago, we predicted zero growth Now in 2014 estimated to be 1.3% and that GDP will accelerate the transition in 2015 to 1.7% stretch. If their forecasts are met, the Spanish will be within the major economies of the euro, that will grow next year, ahead of even the almighty Germany (1.5%) year. Outside this core of the single currency, will be exceeded by other children as Austria, Ireland, Greece, Malta, Latvia or Estonia. And also for some who do not share the currency as the UK and Iceland.

In any case, although favorable, the IMF estimates are not as optimistic as he has used the Government to build the budget of next year. The government expects that the wealth that Spain is capable of creating in excess of 2% from the previous year. But experts Christine Lagarde governing body do not believe that will happen until 2019 Forecasts stop either not married. The accounts of the State have been founded on an unemployment rate of 22.2% and IMF experts speak of 23.5%. According to recent unemployment will not go down 20% through 2018.

But to keep pushing Spain must have the collaboration of partners . That is, with the fragile recovery of the euro area is not resulting in a new episode of this grueling crisis.

And the fact is that the IMF report warns of uncertainties hanging over the global economy. Agency experts believe that increasing geopolitical tensions could impede the exit of the tunnel and cause a drastic increase in oil prices. And also warn that the risk of deflation in the eurozone have risen to 30% since April. Not only that, inflation predict that the single currency club take theirs in return to the fold and fit the objective of price stability the ECB (2%). Therefore, it will not at least until 2019.

Time for stimuli

In the first press conference of the annual IMF meeting held these days in Washington, the head of the Fund, Olivier Blanchard, chief economist said yesterday that there is a risk that the euro area economy “is pond that demand weaken further and that low inflation becomes deflation ‘. And he admitted that the fragility of the recovery has opened “a new debate on the stance of fiscal policy”, to which he added that “there is scope” to stimulate the activity with more public investment in infrastructure.

A this increasingly common in the mouths of representatives of major international organizations message, but it does not quite sink in German offices.