Monday, June 1, 2015

Greece and the “troika” in a decisive week for the future of Europe – LaCapital.com.ar

The “euro crisis” that has no end. It will happen from now key to enable or not a new agreement to avoid the default of Greek debt huge meetings.

Today begins a crucial week for Greece and his long drama of the debt and negotiating with the “troika” formed by the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Union. Trio at the request of Greece, now officially called “institutions” and not by that nickname. Today will be a summit between France, Germany and the European Commission to discuss the hot topic. And yesterday the Greek premier Alexis Tsipras complained about the delay in reaching an agreement that his country away Ghost default on its massive debt and given access to fresh funds. He spoke of “stubbornness” of these institutions, claiming a series of impossible reforms of conducting government leftist Tsipras without reneging on its election promises.

In a letter published in the French daily Le Monde entitled “Europe at a crossroads”, Tsipras has made clear that “the lack of agreement so far is not due to the alleged intransigence of Greece or the lack of commitment” to its Executive. According to the Greek Prime Minister, this long impasse in the negotiations is the fault of “the insistence of certain institutional actors to present absurd proposals. The future of Europe can not depend on the stubbornness and insistence of some” shot Tsipras. He also accused the “institutions” of “a total disregard for the democratic election of the Greeks in the polls” and pointed to creditors and admitted they would “more flexibility in order to meet the Greek popular verdict.” The European experts note that Athens and delivered almost 240,000 million euros since the outbreak of the Greek crisis in 2010. Greece has become dependent on these periodic payments. And not to address structural reforms, but to pay current expenses, as state salaries. Precisely in June ends the second agreement “rescue” signed in 2012. The last installment of this rescue is now undergoing twitching in the table. Without that money, Athens simply fall into default. And warned ministers of the left wing Syriza coalition government that if no agreement soon, this time it will not pay its obligations to the IMF. Tsipras has taken the letter to wonder at the insistence of the European partners not to give in negotiations. “Simply I can not believe that Europe’s future depends on stubbornness or the insistence of some individuals,” he laments. Tsipras warned that the Greek problem affects not only their country, but that is the epicenter of “a conflict between two diametrically opposed strategies” on the future of Europe. In addition, Tsipras reminds its European partners and creditors that “Greece can not claim that fill the previous government” Greek conservative, which implemented a tough adjustment in exchange for bailouts. Intending it would, according to the prime minister, “the complete abolition of democracy in Europe” and creating a “technocratic monstrosity” that separates Europe from its founding principles.

Behind this speech, Tsipras seems to be seeking political support from France, and even Germany. His government is drafting a draft agreement, which would include the points on which there is consensus and that would Tsipras intends to present to Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Francois Hollande, in a meeting that could take place at any time. Hollande and Merkel are due to meet in Berlin today with President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker. Following a meeting of the government’s economic team on Saturday, which lasted more than eight hours, government sources spoke of a “general improvement on critical issues,” but acknowledged that there are still some points that need to be clarified. According to Greek news agency Amna, in Brussels there is convergence of views on VAT, restricting early retirement and the gradual unification of the pension funds. The sore spot of the pension, as did Tsipras and Syriza’s electoral campaign promising no cuts in this area. The debate on VAT has become one of the key issues of the last days (see aside).

The hottest spots in the negotiation

The hottest points of the tug between the “troika” and Greece focus on reforms that have high social and economic costs to a country that transits its fifth year of accumulated adjustments.

– Wages and pensions: The Greek government is adamantly opposed to once again reduce wages and pensions in the public sector. Is a red line that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is not willing to cross

– Pension Reform:. Greece is willing to carry out a reform of the pension system that could include a merger of the various entities. However, the government has made it clear that the reform should not lead to cuts in pensions. While the country has adapted to certain limitations on the extra payments, rejects the request of creditors, which suggest that the pension system is self-financing in the long term and not present deficit.

budgetary -Goals: Greece aimed at first to achieve a primary surplus (before interest payments on the debt) of 3 percent of GDP this year but, according to local newspaper Kathimerini, a lower surplus for 2015 is expected 1 percent. The government aims to reduce the targets for the coming years. In 2016 a primary surplus of 1.5 to 2 percent pautaría, by 2017 it would jump to 3.5 percent. The European Commission would agree, but the IMF demands more

– VAT. To achieve the budget targets, Greece should proceed with adjustments spending or increase revenues. This year should bring extra 2,000 million euros. The government is ready to reform the value added tax or VAT in three steps, with loads of 7, 14 and 22 percent, but creditors suggest an increase of 10 and 23 percent.

– Labor market: Greece Creditors require a thorough reform of its labor market more flexible wages. At this point the differences between the parties are very significant

– Incentives. Greece wants to have a program that promotes long-term economic growth, which aims to agree on debt reductions and development measures

– Internal differences. The Greek government has criticized the creditors do not have a common position in the negotiations. The IMF is a much tougher and front line that the European Commission or the European Central Bank. “If it was necessary to have the approval of the IMF, have reached an agreement while” they say in Athens.

But the Greek government there are also differences. Tsipras facing the intransigence in the Syriza coalition, is unwilling to budge, and even toys with the idea of ​​defaultear debt and leave the Eurogroup

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