Burgo Ezequiel eburgo@clarin.com
China is an important economy for Argentina for three reasons. First, because the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) shielding with a currency swap to the reserves of the Central Bank of Argentina. Then, it is the second largest trading partner Argentina. Argentine exports to China were 10% of the total in the first half. Third, the giant pledged investments in Argentina through a “strategic”.
According Yesterday BPC yuan depreciated 1.9% against the dollar. The currency went (one-time) of 6.1162 yuan 6.2298. What impact can be expected on Argentina via one of these channels?
* Canal financial . The depreciation of the yuan caused a drop in Argentine reserves in dollar because a portion thereof consisting yuan. In fact, the Central Bank reported yesterday that decreased US $ 127 million (US $ 33,705 remained in millions). Virtually all of the fall (US $ 118 million) is explained by the depreciation of the yuan. Meanwhile, Argentina’s debt with the BPC entity (for the swap) fell by the same amount, so that the assets remained unchanged.
* Shopping Channel . From today, the Chinese pay more in dollars for soybeans and other products imported from Argentina (93% of exports to that country are beans and soybean oil, in addition to meat). It will will fall as a result the demand for Argentine goods? Enrique Mantilla, president of the Argentina Chamber of Exporters, says no. “The magnitude of the devaluation is less and the Chinese have benefited from the fall in commodities. Today pay less for copper, iron and soybeans that matter, it more than exceeds the devaluation of the yuan. ” In addition, China’s demand for food will grow: US It estimated that in six years China will import 120 million tons of soybeans.
Argentine economists warned yesterday depreciation of the yuan. “Compounding the loss of competitiveness caused by the fall of commodities and, in particular, the devaluation of the Brazilian currency,” said Jorge Todesca, former deputy economy minister. “Come back required the elimination of taxes on agricultural exports except soybeans, to profit,” tweeted Martin Redrado, former head of the Central Bank. The rise of the dollar in favor China export its industrial products. Will there be invasion of Chinese goods in Argentina? Mauricio Claveria, abeceb.com economist, says no. “They slowed the DJAI, as in the case of toys, shoes, electronics and clothing.”
Investment . China announced a fund of industrial investment in the region by US $ 30,000 million. According to experts, the movement of the yuan yesterday will not affect Beijing plans.
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