In mid-March, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, announced a drastic drop additional -dejándolas interest rates at 0 per cent more bond purchases and greater liquidity for banks, in order to “do everything necessary” to defend the euro and avoid a new recession.
the measures took the QE ( Quantitative Easing) zonal purchase -program of bonds-at its best, adding 80 billion euros monthly, and extraordinary facilities granted to banks to have liquidity -the ECB lend money- paid for, so that, this time, the credit flow to the real economy Europe, given the turmoil in financial markets, falling oil prices and shadows of deflation that extend across the area.
Along with this, Draghi, as is logical, downgraded growth forecasts Eurozone, estimating that the economy will grow in 2016, 1.4 percent versus 1.7 percent previously, while for 2017 fell from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent. Hence, the ECB president will urge countries in the region to consolidate and complete its structural reform to address economic eventualities, since, if not the end, all measures will be insufficient.
But almost two months after the decision, the process results do not look promising. The initial good reception, which raised the shares of the banking sector by 4.9 percent, it was diluted to a current loss of value of around 9 percent, the pace of studies which provide that financial institutions in the area close the year 2016 profit of about 42.8 billion euros, compared with 43.2 billion predicted before the ECB meeting.
in short, Draghi measures seem not only not be I managed to boost activity, but also have reduced by 1 percent the benefits of banking. According to “The Economist”, the original reading which increased the initial optimism of investors was that banks would finance 0 percent, which would grant cheap loans, thus boosting consumption and reducing harmful impact on their income have negative rates.
But industry analysts estimate that European banks will earn about 400 million euros less than before the measures and QE reinforced, while the TLTRO ( Targeted Longer -term Refinancing Operations ) will not reach to compensate for the effect. The TLTRO or conditional loans Long Term is a mechanism to improve bank lending to non-financial private sector in the euro zone excluding loans for the purchase of viviendas- through a window ECB liquidity two years by 400 000 million.
the change in perception by banks is a result of that, while the QE injected liquidity, banks have now sufficient to provide liquidity and what is required capital. But if they raise their capital resources, expensive credit, having to ask customers the highest margins.
According to analysts, the key to this phenomenon is in the lower to -0.4 percent the deposit facility, other measures Draghi, since that charge banks for their deposits at the Central, exert negative effect on medium-term benefits, reducing their ability to lend to the real economy. Also, by cutting rates to 0 percent, the daily Euribor reference -index showing the average rate at which banks lend between them falls, further reducing interest margins of banks, which, according to analysts, for every 10 basis points lower, reflecting a decrease margin of 5 percent.
so, when they are renewed mortgage loans, profits will be reduced, against which, for compensate for this fall, banks will choose to release provisions or reduce costs. And as the latter route is exhausted, the adjustment would come for mergers or acquisitions.
In this context, the struggle between the strategies of the ECB and Germany has intensified and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has suggested that measures Draghi partly explain the rise of parties ultra right at home, while former Interior Minister, the conservative Hans-Peter Friedrich, has asked that the next president of the ECB is a German who change the current policy.
As is obvious, any conflict between Germany and representatives of the ECB carries risks because it could limit its ability to maneuver, making it less effective monetary policy for the area, generating additional capital inflows towards a more reliable Germany, damaging a better communication policy of the ECB and affecting the already weakened confidence.
Germany argues that the ECB is expropriating the savings of its citizens, since those receiving no income for their efforts to postpone present consumption . But although formally the complaint is correct, the underlying problem seems to be that, while investments continue to flow into the financial system, avoiding the real economy due to the uncertainty of the recession, low prices commodities and little activity, stagnation will follow.
the investment decisions seek the highest attainable profits in the shortest possible time and greater liquidity, boosting often very risky operations via financial bubbles. On the other hand, real investment alternatives in large OO.PP. and infrastructure in developed nations are lower than in the emerging markets, where there is less economic and political stability, are less liquid and more long term but reactivate employment and demand.
So, even at the cost losses in the short term for capital, it seems that the more you support the ECB to stimulate demand for the real economy and above all the trust a rise in the use of these resources should stimulate hikes interest rates the coming years and thereby enable those capitals contribute both to the development and growth of Europe and its areas of influence and investments, as improving fair profits of German savers.
No comments:
Post a Comment