BEIJING The International Monetary Fund (IMF) relaunched a bleak outlook on global growth prospects, as it has done in his past reports-and warned that dangerous clouds fly over both rich countries as emerging.
The world economy this year will grow just 3.5%, 0.3 points lower than it had estimated its October data, the report that the IMF presented yesterday at Beijing.
The benefits that would produce a fall in oil prices and the good performance of the economy in the US could be overridden by other negative factors such as reduced investment due to lower growth expectations said the IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard.
For the euro area, the agency estimates that due to the worst prospects for investment growth this year will be 1.2%, 0.2 points less than what was expected three months ago, and 1.4% in 2016, ie 0.3 points less.
Even the German economy is saved, the European locomotive, which according the IMF will grow 1.3% this year and 1.5% in 2016, 0.2 and 0.3 points less than before.
The only exception in Europe in this modification of perspectives to low Spain, which in 2015 would advance by 2%, three tenths more than estimated so far, while in 2016 the estimate of 1.8% is maintained.
The only other country whose prognosis improves, according to the report, is the United States. Due to strong domestic demand, the world’s largest economy growth in 2015 will be 3.6%, ie 0.5 points more than planned, and 3.3% in 2016.
In the second largest economy, China, which in 2014 grew by 7.4%, the lowest rate in 24 years, the IMF expects growth this year to 6.8%, 0.3 points less than the original forecast last October.
The Russian economy, as this may cause a shrinkage of 3% this year due to lower revenues from oil exports and political tensions over Ukrainian conflict.
“The world faces strong crosscurrents said Blanchard- and complicated. On the one hand, the fall in oil prices has a positive effect on major economies. In addition, the worst outlook long term in many parts of the world affect demand, generating a strong depression. “
Both the eurozone and Japan, the IMF is concerned stagnation and low inflation.
The agency believes it also represents a risk to the global economy the instability in financial markets, especially in emerging countries, where low oil prices greatly affect exporters of oil.
IMF experts argued that the correction of global data is due to slower growth in China, Russia, the Eurozone, Japan, and the lower activity of oil exporters.
There is alien to the gloomy outlook Latin America and the Caribbean, which for this year will grow by 1.3%, almost one percentage point less than expected in October and the projection for next year also dropped by half a point percent, to 2.3 percent.
According to their forecasts, Brazil will grow just 0.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, while expanding in Mexico would be from 3 2% this year and 3.5% next.
However, Blanchard also expressed the hope that the effects of lower oil are finally higher than currently estimated. “When we meet again in spring (boreal), it is possible that our current view is revealed as a bit pessimistic. I hope so.”
Agencies DPA and Reuters .
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