Brussels. Greece will hold a referendum on July 5 to define the country’s future, ie, whether to accept the program of reforms and cuts proposed by creditors.
1. The question on which the Greeks will vote
The Greek people must answer the question of whether to accept the program of cuts and reforms demanded by creditors of the country.
This package includes tax increases, such as VAT, taxes on companies and luxury goods, reforming pensions and increasing the retirement age to 67 years and a reduction in military spending.
In return, the creditors sent to the Greek coffers 15,500 million. To strengthen the economy further provides for the delivery of 35,000 million euros until 2020 through a growth plan the budget of the European Union (EU).
The second current aid program would last for five months. However, according to the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has not given the exact wording of the question we must answer the Greeks know.
2. The problems posed a referendum
The Greeks can not reject or approve a rescue package on Sunday July 5 that the second aid package expires this Tuesday, June 30. Formally there is no other offer.
EU diplomats considered unlikely that the government in Athens use the vote on a referendum to stay or not in the common currency, the euro, as opinion polls They indicate that the majority of Greeks are in favor of remaining in the euro zone.
In case of voting on this issue, the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras could suffer a setback.
3. The scenario if the Greeks vote in favor of an agreement with creditors
In this case the creditors likely would resume negotiations with Athens, because they can not ignore this democratic vote.
“Our aim remains to reach a fair agreement,” said Juncker. “The door remains open”. Also the president of France, Francois Hollande, wants talks to continue.
However, the problem that will have won the second aid package and actually no longer be a basis on which remains negotiate.
4. The scenario in case of a “no”
In this case, the country is heading for the exit from the eurozone, the so-called “Grexit”. However, this will not happen automatically: it is the politicians that define the course of events
The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, advised his people to vote for the “no”.. The President of the European Commission Juncker today asked the Greek people to vote “yes”.
“It is trying to convince the Greek government to support the ‘yes’,” said for his part European Monetary Affairs Commissioner of the European Union, the French Pierre Moscovici.
5. Europe does not have the political desire for a “Grexit ‘(a Greek exit from the euro)
The eurozone partners want to Greece follow within the euro. “For me, the output of Greece in the eurozone was never an option and never will be,” Juncker said. German Chancellor Angela Merkel recalled today:
“If the euro fails, Europe fails”. 6. The “Grexit” no po ndría endanger the euro
Most economists expect it. There are several arguments in favor and one of them is that foreign banks reduced in recent years its presence in Greece .
The output of Greece is not therefore comparable to the bankruptcy of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008, sparking a global banking crisis.
Also, Greece is considered a special case . The effects on other eurozone countries as heavily indebted Spain and Italy may be limited; it is likely that people will not agolpe there at the gates of the banks. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) can continue stabilizing banks by buying government debt.
7. On Tuesday, one day key
On Tuesday, Greece must pay a fee maturing of 1,600 million euros to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Pierre Moscovici, is skeptical about whether Athens will succeed, “ Greece probably will not do it,” he told French channel RTL. Athens coffers are empty. Without agreement on a reform package, they will not flow 15,500 million euros in aid to the creditors-the IMF, the ECB and partners in Europe had recently offered.
8. In that case, Greece will declare bankruptcy on July 1?
Even if negotiations fail, it is possible that Greece the payment immediately cesacisión Wednesday .
9. Bankruptcy does not necessarily leaves Greece out of the euro
The EU Treaty does not provide for a country leaving the eurozone. Athens can stay in the eurozone even without pay. The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said: “It is clear that Greece will remain a member of the eurozone and Greece will remain part of Europe.”
.10. The characteristics of a “Grexit”
Because there are no rules for this, it should be negotiated and carried out unilaterally by Greece or the eurozone. The country could remain part of the euro zone on paper, but should issue its own currency money to provide their banks.
Economists already several times mentioned a parallel currency or a return to the drachma. According to the president of the Ifo Institute in Munich, Hans-Werner Sinn, this has its advantages: “The new currency would depreciate against the euro, and that the country would be competitive.” Even if you leave the eurozone, Greece remain part of the EU, although generous support of the other 27 members of the alliance needed would be
Source:. DPA
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