Madrid, June 21 (EFE) .- Spain waiting anxiously, but without warning the imminent outcome of the open crisis between Greece and its European partners, as even if the breakdown of the euro area the impact on the economy and the Spanish finances occur would be limited.
After several weeks of negotiations, ultimatums, threats and posturing, the talks are deadlocked waiting that on Monday the Eurogroup meets immediately before the summit of eurozone leaders, who once again will try to reach an agreement in extremis to avoid bankruptcy and a possible exit from the euro in the country.
The immediate consequence of the exit of Greece from the euro area would, according to analysts, a financial crisis and the issuance of a new currency would be devalued significantly against the euro.
This in As to Greece, but for Europe the impact would be serious in terms of the credibility of the European project, which never before had been questioned and had been considered irreversible.
This risk is well aware Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, although said Friday that Spain does not need contingency plans if there were a Greek default or exit from the country of the euro, acknowledged that what is at stake is the future of the eurozone.
In this sense, focusing on Spain, Carlos Fernandez, analyst at XTB, distinguishes two aspects, firstly economic losses during a possible reduction of debt and other policies, as it creates a precedent of abandonment of the single currency and the principle that it is an irreversible project breaks.
The latter being the worst, and most difficult to estimate in advance, the economic consequences would come Side cost to the state of higher funding costs, the outflow of foreign capital and the collapse of the bag.
For now, the sovereign debt market is the one who has accused the possibility of a ‘Grexit “; in the secondary, the interest of the Spanish ten-year bond, the benchmark for measuring country risk, has surged above 2.3%, its highest level since August 2014, from the record low in March, below 1.2%.
This has raised the risk premium of Spain just 90 points from mid-March to more than 150 that marked this week.
On this point, Carlos Fernandez explains that it is normal that an increase occurs, although like the declines have been held for bond purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB), where applicable, the body “could increase the purchase of bonds and keep the situation under control. “
Faced with the massive outflow of capital from Greece and withdrawals and deposits from Greek banks by almost 35,000 million euros particular since November, 3000 million just to pasada- week in Spain the situation is very different.
Despite the low returns offered by banks, deposits of families and individuals who guard the Spanish financial institutions have risen -a 0, 6% in April, the last month of the Bank of Spain provides data -.
Also, the savings for investment funds has grown almost 15% since early this year, according to the employer’s sector.
And neither they have disappointed foreign investors, which in April were managing over 400,000 million euros of Spanish debt, a record and 55.7% of the total.
But besides , exposing Spain to Greece is relatively low and well below that of other neighboring countries; in particular, the aid provided for rescues Spain is about 28,000 million euros, should be added to the exposure of Spanish banks to Greek debt, 500 million euros.
Despite it is a large amount, Carlos Fernandez believes that “there would have excessive impact on our banking sector, perhaps something for the state treasury, but in any case a very high incidence.”
At Regarding the stock market, the analyst admits that there may be more volatile, but “it is a scenario that takes shuffling many months and that gave time investors to reduce their exposure to Greek debt.”
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