Constanza Morales H.
The stimulus of world activity for the recent drop in oil prices will not be enough to offset the weakness in several major economies , prompting the International Monetary Fund cut its global projections for this year and next.
The update
World Economic Outlook report published yesterday, the institution lowered its estimates for the world from 3.8% to 3.5% for 2015 and from 4% to 3.7% for 2016.
While the sharp decline of over 50% has shown the price crude since June is a positive for the activity, this tailwind will be largely offset by negative factors such as weak investment. The agency revised down forecasts for most major markets, with the US being the only exception.
The IMF expects the main power to expand 3.6% this year and 3.3% next, as compared with the previous prediction of 3.1% and 3%, respectively.
“The growth will exceed 3% in 2015-2016 to domestic demand underpinned by lower oil prices, a more moderate fiscal adjustment and continuous support of a flexible stance of monetary policy, despite the projected gradual rise in interest rates, “read the report.
Baja European investment
activity in the euro area will be boosted by cheaper fuel, a more relaxed monetary policy, a more neutral stance of fiscal policy and the recent depreciation of the euro. However, these factors will be neutralized by low investment. The recovery of the block will be slightly slower than expected in October, with a rate of 1.2% and 1.4%, compared to previous predictions of 1.4% and 1.7%.
Spain was the only nation in the region that saw an improvement in their omens for this year. It is expected that GDP in the fourth economy of the community to rise 2%, which compares with the prediction of 1.7% made three months ago. The nation would slow to 1.8% in 2016.
activity in Germany would rise 1.3% this year, below the 1.5% rate previously forecast. Most repuntaría area economy to 1.5% next year, which corresponds to 0.3 percentage point less than estimated in October.
Amid growing risk of deflation The lender called the European Central Bank to more flexible monetary policy by other means to prevent an increase in real interest rates.
In this line, Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, said yesterday that “of course expect the ECB to continue to support the recovery in Europe. It is necessary”.
Meanwhile, Japan’s growth would climb 0.6% and 0.8%, an decline with respect to rates of 0.8% and 0.7% projected by the end of 2014.
China below 7%
forecasts for emerging markets were corrected sharply lower from 4.9% to 4.3% this year and from 5.2% to 4.7% for the next.
IMF mentioned three factors behind the downgrade: the slowdown in China’s second economy would grow 6.8% and 6.3% instead of 7.1% and 6.8%, respectively, and their implications for nations Asian developing; the bleaker outlook for Russia She portends a contraction of 3% in 2015 and 1% in 2016; and downward revisions of the potential for commodity exporters growth.
GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean would advance just 1.3% this year and 2.3% next, far from the predictions 2 , 2% and 2.8% in October.
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