From the Government of Alexis Tsipras the relative optimism about the negotiations is maintained and ensure that there is agreement on “most of the issues.”
With the clock pressing Athens, Greece and its creditors face days of frantic trading activity. Since the Government of Alexis Tsipras the relative optimism about the negotiations is maintained, and has said Yanis Varufakis, no agreement “in most cases”, including VAT, and the parties would be “very close to closing the deal.” However, throughout the week Brussels and the IMF have been playing the Greek optimism, at the crossroads of statements of the negotiating process itself.
1. Are you close the deal? Although one sticks to the statements, it is unclear how the negotiations have progressed, although it seems that they have intensified. From the Greek side sold close the deal as a way to lower the pressure (and the flight of deposits) while creditors are more pessimistic. On Wednesday, ministry sources said Greek Finance was working on a draft, from denial end shortly after the Eurogroup. Thursday government spokesman said Gabriel Sakellaridis Athens trust agreement by Sunday, but the commissioner Pierre Moscovici said “we have not traveled three quarters of the way [...] will have to work day and night”. The IMF managing director, also from Dresden, said “we are not at the end of the process.”
2.¿De truth are negotiating? Yes. Since Wednesday there technical level meetings in Brussels, and it is these works of preparation of the agreements most notably Athens. “We hope to complete work in the coming days”. In parallel, yesterday Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, kept by telephone last night for an hour with Alexis Tsipras, Greek Prime Minister. In Dresden are gathered finance ministers of the G7 (along with representatives of the IMF and central banks) to deal in theory, issues related to growth and tax evasion, while Greece is overshadowing the talks.
3. Where are the differences? As the Eurogroup, the negotiations are revolving around the labor reform and pension cuts. Athens provides reforms that are not immediate and retroactive, while creditors require actual cuts. Athens on Wednesday said that in the initial agreement to reform the pension system is envisaged. Now the IMF is also party to the agreement and to be endorsed, the fund requires that the Greek finance seem sustainable in the long term: the mandate requires lend money to solvent countries and therefore emphasizes restructuring debt (frowned upon by Europe) or adjustment of public accounts (not like Greece).
4. There’s time? Pretty little. Although it is traditional that deadlines hurry much more than expected, Athens is on the ropes. Friday should make a payment to the IMF 300 billion euros (total payable 1,500 million in June). It is not an ultimatum, because not trigger a debt default immediately and no alternative formulas to circumvent the payment (in fact paid in May Greece from its own reserves). Greece has made it clear that no prospect of agreement will not pay to the fund, to pay salaries at the end of the month. But neither it has much longer. In July that occurred within Greece and creditors to negotiate expires, the IMF should collect outstanding payments and Greece must pay to the ECB (which, in turn, is the one who kept alive the Greek banking). At the end of the month, on 24 and 25 June EU summit there.
5. What do you think the ECB? Draghi has kept open the money tap for the Greek banks survive the flight of deposits (citizens taking out their money from the bank for fear of corralito ) but you can close almost at will, forcing the hand of Athens. According to estimates by Bankinter, emergency loans granted by the ECB amounted to 80,000 million and the Greek banks have to make assets as collateral at the ECB by another 15,000, which would give seven or eight weeks of liquidity (calculating outflows 2,500 million). But if the ECB raises the discount applied to these assets, the time it can withstand the banking gas mask will run out long before
6. Is leaving the euro a possibility? Athens obviously sells optimism. But creditors are equally cautious, because nobody wants to be the one who broke the eurozone. Since Germany has lowered the tone of the statements. ECB Vice President Victor Constancio, said this week that “you can not expel a country from the euro”. The IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, said that the breakdown of the euro “is a complicated issue, it will not be a walk in the park”.
fondos@eleconomista.com.mx
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