Satisfaction is what was breathed yesterday at the Casa Rosada. As they had anticipated from the Government, in July the first data trigger inflation in decline. And so it was: last month closed with a 2% increase, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Indec. Even the core indicator, which eliminates estacionales- regulated prices and drilled the floor and scored 1.9 percent.
But still there is nothing to celebrate. While the government reached a monthly average that was the end of the Kirchner administration without the distortions of a type of late change, withholdings and ironed rates, alternative indices show that in seven months, the rise in cumulative price exceeded the official annual target and 25% and is situated about 32%, according to provincial measurements. In addition, the annual projection is still maintained between 46 and 47%.
The Indec can not spread a cumulative or an annual projection for newly published his first figure in May.
both the Congress CPI data (average of several private consultants) as several provinces have ratified the slowdown in inflation in July. For the Indec, it went from 4.2% (May) to 3.1% (June) and now at 2 percent. The measurement core (core) meanwhile, went from 2.7% to 3% and, last month, to 1.9 percent.
The causes of the slowdown , according to analysts consulted by la Nacion, it lies in the rise in rates failed to have an impact on prices and tight monetary policy of the Central Bank. However, the main reasons are the recession of the economy and curb consumption.
The most pesismista news had to do with the persistence of high monthly variations that reflect food. Last month the increase was 2.7 percent; in June it was 3.2 percent. Food rose the most were some vegetables (such as onions, lettuce, sweet potatoes or squash, worth 38% last month soared). Furthermore rose sharply wine (11%), fine salt (6%) and butter (5%), product suffered a minor deal in July because of problems in their production.
The biggest monthly increase between the different components of the index had it, however, heading of Leisure (5%) by the effect of the winter holidays. Also advanced equipment and household maintenance (2.4%), education (2.4%) and medical care and health expenses (2.1%).
“There is no doubt that the inflation in July was lower than June. But still high, “said Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, chief economist at Ecolatina. “With stable exchange rate and quiet tariffs it is a part of the IPC should not move. Also, second-round effects of rate hikes April no longer perceived,” he said.
“Deepening recession also helps contain prices. Many businesses are implementing aggressive discounts to sell more that are not necessarily captured in list prices but requiring competition not increase prices or give similar benefits, “said economist consultant, which it estimated that if no joint reopening is likely that inflation will end the year at 1.5% per month.
“the real success of the anti-inflationary policy of the Government would consolidate inflation below 2 .% monthly without appealing to the exchange rate or delay the answer to this question will come only in 2017 “brandished specialist
the consultant Labour, Capital & Dev. Growth (LCG), founded by Martin Lousteau, said rest of the year to estimate a slowdown to 1.7% average monthly for “brake strong economic activity, growth of consumer goods imports, contractionary monetary policy and exchange rate stability . “.
” This is consistent with inflation of 39% yoy in December The data is very good, “called Camilo Tiscornia, director of C & T Economic advisers. “The increases it were mainly in health and recreation but next month [in August] no longer impact the hikes for the winter holidays,” he said.
“Food is still less sympathetic upload” said economist and esperanzó. “They were losing momentum in July and the first weeks of August show lower prices”
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