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© AFP 2016 / Georges Gobet
The document, entitled ‘Situation Spain’ warns that “the vulnerability of the Spanish economy increases” and “many elements anticipate downward bias in 2017″.
For the next year is expected to grow 2.3%, four tenths less than in the previous review, although in line with official forecasts.
The BBVA also warns that “it is necessary to have certainty as soon as possible on the policies to be implemented over the coming years,” referring to the lack of agreement to form a government.
the report notes that Spain “will be lowered capacity growth by the need to make adjustments to achieve stick to public deficit targets “.
However, it warns that “strictly fulfilled announced policies” which require some cuts of around 5,000 million euros “public expenditure would be adjusted in the second half of the year and lastraría growth of domestic demand “.
on the other hand, it also highlights the slowdown expected for 2017 may be largely due to the worst outlook for the external sector due to the recent developments in the US economy or the materialization of risks in Europe, causing a ‘deterioration in the outlook for Spanish exports. “
as for the Brexit believes that have” a short-term effect on Spanish GDP three to four tenths in 2017 “due to the” volatility generated in markets “and falling exports to UK.
However, domestic demand continues to pull the Spanish economy amid the political uncertainties, which could favor the growth of GDP this 2016.
the BBVA Research believes that the target of 4.6% of GDP for this year is “credible” because of the measures taken so far and prospects growth for the year.
as for the deficit, expected to be set this year at 4.4% of GDP, two tenths below the target.
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