Image copyright AFP At first sight it is a very good news for the entire global oil industry.
This Wednesday, for the first time in eight years, the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to reduce their production in an effort to raise oil prices.
In one encouraging sign for the sagging oil industry, countries that are not part of OPEC, like Russia, have also been crimped to the agreement.
And the prices reacted positively almost immediately.
Change
The price of oil Brent went up 9% to US$ 51,57 per barrel, while the crude american it appreciated by 8.2%, reaching US$ 48.9 per.
But perhaps this is not the time yet to uncork the bottles of champagne in the oil capitals of the world, from Moscow to Riyadh, passing through Caracas.
Thus it is not clear in the medium and long term who is the one who stands to gain from this apparent change in the oil industry overall has spent two years in crisis.
spectator happy
The OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, had been delayed in reaching an agreement to cut production and raise prices.
“it Is believed that one of the reasons for the delay was that Saudi Arabia was happy with the damage done to the u.s. industry’s “shale” (oil extracted from the shale), whose expansion had been one of the key factors in the decline of prices”, ensures the correspondent of economic affairs of the BBC, Andrew Walker.
The saudis would be waiting to that the low prices prevailing in the last two years to be taken out of the industry to many of the oil americans, a result that would help traditional producers in OPEC to regain control and power they once had on the market.
“But it didn’t work. The oil production u.s.scendió something this year, but still remains at a level higher than in 2014. The increase in prices that occurs now will likely increase the oil production from oil shale american,” she adds.
And finds: “the decision of the OPEC on Wednesday indicates that the fight against the shale u.s. has been lost”.
Discipline
The position of the producers oil americans, who do not make part of the agreement, it looks very comfortable.
Not have committed to reduce their production, as the other exporters of the OPEC, but will benefit from the best prices.
In contrast, nations like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and other major producers, have a dilemma complex between hands.
Several of them face fiscal problems serious. But in order to maintain the high prices, many of them have to restrict the oil production, giving up dollars needed by their treasuries.
Further, to make that sacrifice individually, these nations have no assurance that their other colleagues in the OPEC will not make a trap, and below a rope to increase the production to maximize the collection in this season of high prices.
If several nations begin to fail to comply with the agreements, the global supply of crude oil will increase and prices will fall back. This has been a recurrent story in the attempts of the OPEC by keeping prices high in recent decades.
“I Think it’s awesome that the OPEC has come so far this time and that you’ve gotten that nations such as Iran and Iraq are in agreement (with the cuts of production), but Russia could change your mind about this sacrifice,” he tells the BBC’s John Chairman, of the london-based firm Alpha Energy Group.
Vigilant
Among the nations that will be watching with extreme anxiety the development of this strategy will be Venezuela, the country with the largest oil reserves in the world and one of the key members of OPEC.
Their extreme fiscal difficulties make it imperative for your financial stability reaches a new period of high oil prices.
But also other Latin american nations that are not members of OPEC who have placed great hopes in the oil, such as Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, will be-longing to the agreement get to keep the oil prices high for a longer time.
To stay current, a new era of high prices of fuel will cause headaches to consumers in industrial and developing countries, which already began to get used to the cheap petrol of the past two years.
But in Houston, the oil capital american, the operators of the crude oil in that country will possibly be looking at these developments with the illusion of having been, more than any other, the beneficiaries of this new chapter in the long drama of international markets of energy.
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