Luis de Guindos, at a hearing in Congress. / LUIS SEVILLANO
Minister Economy and Competitiveness, Luis de Guindos, has advanced the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be close to 1.5% this year and 2% next year despite the economic slowdown that has occurred in the euro zone year and Russian veto the importation of perishable goods, factors that, in their view, do not compromise the Spanish growth.
“Current forecasts are 1.2% and 1.8%. Obviously if there improvement will approach 1.5% and 2%, “said the minister in an interview with Europa Press, after stating that the leading indicators of growth and jobs are better than expected macroeconomic picture in April. You have not specified the new figures to be released in September, but has said that improvement will be noticed especially in the magnitudes of employment, since the government hopes that the creation of jobs to double in 2015.
This past April, the government said that Spain would create 600,000 jobs in terms of the Labour Force Survey for 2014 and 2015, while the number of unemployed will decrease by 800,000, figures that are expected to be high in September.
According Guindos, improving variables may occur because, even though the Spanish economy is closely linked to Europe, Spain now has a “very strong” economic fundamentals that allow you to cope with the slowdown in the euro zone and to avoid what happened in late 2010, when the small recovery “sold out” by another economic slowdown.
“Of course we are sensitive to what happens in the rest of Europe, but what has changed is essentially that at present the fundamentals of the Spanish economy are much more robust and can obviously cope with a slowdown in the euro area with a lot more base and solidity that three years ago, “he noted.
In fact, Guindos recalled that Spain has been one of the countries in Europe that has grown in the first half despite Europe’s stagnation, with four consecutive quarters of increases that currently allow you to grow, on an annualized basis, a cruising speed of between 2% and 2.5%. It has also advanced the figure of the third quarter will be “good” because the indicators remain positivos.El GDP will continue accelerating, “The recovery continues and I am sure that will continue in the remaining two quarters of year” , said Guindos, after stating that GDP will continue to accelerate and the European environment will improve, since Germany resume growth in the third quarter and Italy and France likely will implement structural reforms to build confidence and boost GDP.
According Guindos, the fragility of the euro zone is linked to structural issues in the region, so you do not have to think about the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) to solve these problems, but economic reforms. In his view, monetary policy can generate liquidity when there are concrete problems and help save time, “but not cure the structural problems.”
In addition, the ECB has already announced a package in June “very important” (lowering interest rates, deposit rates negative, conditional liquidity injections long term and to sterilize the liquidity injected through the program of buying bonds) measures, in the minister’s opinion, probably “work fine. “
In the same way, recalled that Europe also has the Stability and Growth Pact, which allows flexibility deficit targets if growth in some countries is below than expected although, as noted, any European minister has asked this flexibility because meet deficit targets remains a prioridad.España meet the objective of déficitDe fact, was convinced that Spain will meet its goal of reducing negative balance of public accounts to 5.5% this year and 4.2% in 2015 In this regard, he recalled being generated significant savings elsewhere -5.000 million in interest payments on the debt, that fund is up about 6%, which will improve the social security accounts thanks to the recovery of employment and tax reform will not only raise the disposable income of citizens, but will improve the functioning of the economy.
has also assured that the provision of debt this year (99.5%) despite the doubts of some international organizations will be fulfilled. According Guindos, this magnitude has grown a lot in the first months of the year by accelerating emissions, but this effect will be tempered in the coming months because the Treasury will reduce auctions and dilate in time.
” The figures reflected in the stability program are perfectly feasible, “said after further ensure that exports will also improve in the second half of the year and that the country will end 2014 with a net lending to the rest of the world next 1% and current account surplus to 0.5% next.
Guindos has indicated that the market is aware of all these improvements, which has led to the rating agencies to improve the Spanish note. In the future, as explained above, the Government will continue to work to return to raise the rating of Spain. “I hope this is the case,” he said. The CPI will remain a few months in negative The minister also reviewed the price situation in Spain after inflation fell three tenths in July, and has recognized that in the next two or three months will remain negative. However, it has relied on the CPI 2014 close with a slight increase, although less than initially expected (0.5%). Despite highlighting the need for inflation to rise slightly in Spain and Europe Guindos explained that low level also has positive effects and that an economic model based on subdued inflation, job creation and wage moderation is ” much healthier “than it was before the crisis.
However, despite ensuring that wage moderation has been instrumental in the setting, and has recognized that there is some scope for some firms or sectors begin to raise wages to their employees because they have already gained a lot of productivity and have greatly improved their efficiency levels. “Obviously these companies can raise wages, but must also take into account that inflation is very low,” stated
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In any case, recalled that wages are not a responsibility of the Government and are social agents who have to negotiate any increases. “The government does not have a button to set as they have to go down as part of the dialogue of social partners” dicho.El SMI has no influence on the evolution salarialPreguntado if the Government is considering the possibility of raising the minimum wage Interprofessional (SMI) to recover lost ground freezes in 2011 and 2012, Guindos has merely say this wage affects a very small percentage of the population that is not a fundamental variable to determine wage developments.
has also said that the Government does not arise at this time lowering social contributions to the companies, as demanded by employers, since the government decided to focus its strategy on encouraging new permanent contracts with very attractive measures for entrepreneurs as the flat rate of 100 euros which, in his view, is working very well.
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