In one week, the Spanish will to 46.000 million euros richer . The National Statistics Institute (INE) apply from September 1 the new European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010), which includes a number of methodological changes to the calculation of the country’s wealth.
One of the main new-probably the most morbid though not the most impact-is the inclusion of illegal activities , such as prostitution, trafficking and consumption of drugs or alcohol smuggling and snuff, in the national accounts.
But the new methodology goes far beyond. The European regulation which obliges EU Member States to update the sources and statistical procedures incorporates other changes that will impact on nominal GDP of between 2.7% and 4.5%, according to preliminary calculations the INE has sent European statistics office, Eurostat.
Among the most prominent changes is recognized as investment expenditure on Research and Development (R & D) , so far was counted as intermediate consumption. This modification could increase GDP by up to 1.3%, while the largest increase took place in countries that allocate more resources to innovation, such as Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands, according to European sources required.
There will also be changes in the military spending , as the weapons and support equipment to be used during more than one year will be recorded as investment and contribute to a 0.2% increase national wealth, which at the end of 2013 was 1.022 billion euros.
new population census , which raises about 400,000 residents in Spain, also have an impact on the wealth of the country as it increases the number of potential taxpayers and consumers.
On 25 September, the INE will release the first results with new statistical base. Updating the national accounts series from 1995-2013 will reveal exactly how much GDP has increased thanks to these changes. It will also be the opportunity to accurately measure the impact of illegal activities in the country’s wealth, and so far the Spanish statistical service has not given an estimate.
The Member States of the EU They are finding difficulties in measuring the real economic value of prostitution or drug trafficking . “In the absence of official records must go to reports and surveys are not always 100% reliable” sources familiar support this process.
Eurostat sent to national statistical services a guide with instructions for these measurements, although he admits that there are difficulties in obtaining accurate data and that “the results of each country can vary considerably depending on the variables used and documentary sources.” INE sources explain that these calculations have been used surveys of sexual behavior, police records and are liaising with clubs.
The new value of European economies will impact on a number of variables that are measured in terms of GDP. For example, the ratios of public debt and deficit will fall slightly from September, the month in which the European partners send the updated data and serving on the Commission to monitor the Excessive Deficit Procedure.
In any case it does not seem that this methodological change will influence the decisions to be taken when Brussels to consider the task of fiscal consolidation in a country, since in recent years is prioritizing structural stress more than nominal deficit levels.
The wealth of the Member States of the EU also serves to fix the voting rights in certain institutions, as well as the contributions made to the Community budget and the capital of the ECB. However from Brussels admit that planned changes “will be proportional in all countries, so that there will be no changes in the current composition.”
Eurostat will follow the procedures that have followed the various services national statistics to ensure no undue disturbance.
No comments:
Post a Comment