Brussels, February 5 (EFE) .- The European Commission (EC) today raised six tenths its growth forecast for the Spanish economy this year to 2.3% of GDP, and three tenths of 2016 to 2.5%, which awarded mainly to strong domestic demand.
In winter macroeconomic forecasts, the EC considers that the growth of Spain could be even higher due to impact of the purchase of debt announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the fall in oil prices since both could further boost private consumption and investment.
“After three years of recession, the Spanish economy began to grow again in 2014 and seems to be gaining momentum while improving labor market prospects, financial conditions are softened, confidence is strengthened, economic uncertainty is attenuated and energy prices fall, “the EC said.
The Committee hopes that this combination of factors” sustain growth until 2016, although the burden of high levels of public and private debt and deleveraging remains “.
In the forecasts published in November, the EC expected the Spanish economy closed 2014 with 1.2% (instead of 1.4% final) and 2015 to 1.7% and 2016 2.2%.
The new perspectives Brussels are above the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also recently revised upwards its estimates of the growth of the Spanish economy for 2015 situate at 2%, which is consistent with estimates of the Spanish Government in their budgets for this year.
The Executive led by Mariano Rajoy has been even more optimistic of the hand of his Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, who has assured that it would be “unreasonable” that Spain will close this year with a growth of 3%.
De Guindos also indicated that the Spanish Government will revise upward its forecast in April.
The macroeconomic forecasts published today by the EC are also more optimistic about the evolution of unemployment, which however will fail down 20% to beyond 2016.
In particular, the EC expected to fall in 22.5% this year and 20.7% in 2016, having peaked in the first quarter of 2013 with 26.9%.
” Job creation gained momentum in the second half of 2014, “said the Commission also noted that parallel the workforce continued to decline, ie, the number of people of working age who are working or looking in Spain.
The EU executive expected to “intensify the positive trends, reinforced by wage moderation and only modest increases in unit labor costs.”
The export sector Brussels expected to moderate his drive after being the main driver of growth of the Spanish economy during the beginning of the recovery, re-accelerate in 2015, according to new estimates.
This should be to improve competitiveness both prices as the other factors, as well as the expected recovery of the main recipients markets for goods exported from Spain.
Meanwhile, imports will moderate slightly this year, after experiencing a sudden expansion in 2014.
The EC estimated that average inflation in the country in 2014 was -0.2% and that “will remain in negative territory in the short term, also as a result of the fall price of oil “, so that this year would stand at -1% to return to positive territory in 2016, although at low (1.1%) levels.
The EC also expects “modest recovery” in the construction industry “after seven years of adjustment.” EFE
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