Europe is troubled. Alexis Tsipras, a young leader inexperienced management , which comes from the radical left and until recently proposed to stop paying the external debt and leave the euro, became . in the new prime minister of Greece
The win gave authority to the most feared threat by the European establishment: the advancement of movements in different countries promise kicking economic and political chessboard that has been brewing for over 20 years.
However, over the days panic was transformed into a moderate concern . Already in the months before the elections, Tsipras and SYRIZA put aside their more radical slogans and adopted a more conciliatory and realistic attitude.
Your first hours in office ratified the turn: will attempt to carry out major changes which already began with the suspension of some privatizations, but will be no revolution . “Make no mistake. What begins today is a process of discussion with our partners . I will not stand before the Eurogroup to find a good solution for the Greeks, but it is bad for Irish, Slovaks, German, French or Italian “, said the new minister of finance, Yanis Dragasakis.
Something similar happened with We can in Spain . He started claiming the Venezuelan Chavez and promoting the unilateral suspension of debt payments. But as polls showed him as an alternative with a serious chance to govern, he dropped the Bolivarian discourse and approached the center.
From fantasy to reality
” We can and SYRIZA have softened and in some cases have shifted almost 180 degrees . For example, regarding the non-payment of sovereign debt, something was said, but it is unacceptable because lead the country to complete bankruptcy , and make it impossible to be financed, “says Araceli Mangas Martin , Professor of Public International Law and International Relations at the Complutense University of Madrid, consulted by Infobae .
“For Syriza have seen that they can not make some decisions unilaterally. There are internal fields of the nations that are conditioned by Brussels (seat of power in the European Union). Others, such as the minimum wage. It clearly shows that in the subjects in which decisions have serious consequences, has changed, “he says.
These are not isolated or exceptional cases. The policy has its rules and no achieved with the will of a party or a leader to transform reality. Therefore, when a leader bursts into the scene by proposals and unrealistic promises, often sin of demagoguery, innocence, or both.
“ logical says Mangas Martin, all parties come to power budgets than those that end up captured, because realpolitik which obliges to consider most circumstances. “
” are a little naive, innocent . But then there are people who teach them, and then they realize that certain positions were extreme. not think it’s all demagogic, but rather an issue of lack of training of young political leaders, “he adds.
The political scientist Joseph Antonio Sanahuja , Professor of International Relations at the Complutense University of Madrid, argues that the discursive changes can respond to tactical and strategic decisions. Seeing win an election and it was not a fantasy but a tangible possibility, They realized that should be moderated to convince voters center .
“Where else has seen this change is to position on the removed and the debt audit , which more than soften the qualifying and qualified gone. What we propose is find political responsibilities at the origin of indebtedness, and see if from there can be a renegotiation. This claim is not exclusive to these parties: many economists argue that you can not raise the debt payment without economic growth, “says Sanahuja, consulted Infobae
“Besides, is a game that is being built at this time. It is unrealistic to have a concrete and detailed proposal on all aspects of public life in these conditions. “
But the innocence and inexperience may become in irresponsible if they are not aware of the consequences that can have many of their grievances if implemented. Greece is a laboratory to see what happens.
“ Decisions has taken Syriza in the early hours of government does not involve any illegality regarding European or international standards. But could end up exacerbating the debt of Greece , already three years being funded by month by EU Member States does, “says Mangas Martin.
” Truly he continues, establish the universality of social security, and that the state takes over the electricity bills of those who can not pay, I look very good decisions politically but there is a question about how they will fund. gay measures are often fair, but not enough of them , because they have to have to make radical decisions regarding the income of Greece “.
The risks for Europe
The growing popularity of SYRIZA and can, to which can be added the Marine Le Pen in France and UKIP in the UK, is associated in part to public discontent with the economic policy that the EU has imposed to member countries. Therefore some fear that the assumption Tsipras, who at least limit the interference of the block in the country, is the beginning of a wave that could end unbalancing continental integration .
“The question is whether a change in policy in Greece, with proposals for take off and restructuring debt, can not get to look like a sign of wanting to live off savings and fiscal prudence Sites . This could generate a polarization effect in Europe . Another, more subtle, possible consequence is a change in the correlation of forces at the European Council and the Eurogroup, which manage macroeconomic coordination in the euro area, “says Sanahuja.
To Mangas Martin, in the worst case, EU may suffer . “Greece has a very limited weight on the block, and Spain is relative, although not to exaggerate. But if in France reached the extreme right, and the UK also , we would live a few years unstable . Just not the end of the EU, because there are many containment system, “he explains.
” Anyway, or Syriza are anti-Europeans can not . They question how they are doing things in Europe, but not the EU as such. It is also true that EU in recent years has not been part of the suffering , and governments have been required to pay the bills and outside. They have to start doing other things, “adds
An inevitable replacement
The rise of these new radical political forces in Europe can not be explained without considering the crisis of the traditional parties , which were unable to cope economic depression effectively.
“The positive thing about the emergence of Can is that oxygenated party system in Spain . One problem we’ve had is the absolute lack of political reaction to a social crisis very serious. Not only the ruling party but also the opposition. So it has meant a salutary lesson. Although risks also come around: we now have an electoral scenario , and probably postelection extraordinarily uncertain, and the only thing you can imagine are impossible coalitions “says Sanahuja.
Things were no different in Greece, where for nearly a century, power was distributed almost exclusively between two families, the Karamanlis and Papandreou. That turnover, which was as necessary as inevitably, is probably the most innovative of the emergence of SYRIZA.
“The existence of can is a call for strong attention, that if the Socialist Parties (opposition) and the Popular Party ( government) do not take seriously, can become, unfortunately, the only possible regeneration . I wish that they learn the lesson and parties agreed a pact regeneration . So the risks of feed a force not really know would be avoided if you have formed elites to take charge of governing. They are quite inexperienced and somewhat innocent, and there is the threat that, at some point, take Bolivarian deviations “concludes Mangas Martin.
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