In the report “Economic Forecasts Spring 2015″, the Commission predicts that the euro zone will grow by 1.9% and the EU 2.1 percent. These forecasts are unchanged from the previous estimate.
The European Commission has slightly improved growth figures for this year in the euro zone and the Union European Union (EU). For 2016, the forecast has remained unchanged.
Specifically, Brussels expects the eurozone economy to grow by 1.5% this year, two tenths more than estimated in February. For the whole of the European Union provides for an increase of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.8%, just one more than in the last analysis tenth.
The report “Economic Forecasts Spring 2015″ year in which the Commission predicts that the euro zone will grow by 1.9% and the EU 2.1 percent. These forecasts are unchanged from the previous estimate.
The agency explained that domestic demand will be the main contributor to GDP growth “with an acceleration of private consumption is expected this year.” However, Brussels has said that the rise in investment will not come until 2016.
In addition, Brussels has improved its calculations thanks to low levels of oil, global sustained growth, the depreciation of the euro and impact of the purchase program of the European Central Bank (ECB) debt. Also contributing to the upward revision of the budgetary neutral position in the whole EU and structural reforms.
“The European economy is not developing so well for several years, with a recovery favored both by and external measures begin to bear fruit factors, “said the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Pierre Moscovici.
” However, additional efforts are needed for this recovery is not a temporary phenomenon. It important to realize investments and the expected reforms and not deviate from the policies of fiscal responsibility to create jobs and sustainable growth that Europe needs, “he warned.
Greece, the black sheep
Despite the general improvement in the region, Greece remains the country with the worst prospects. In fact, the EU executive has cut two points (from 2.5% to 0.5%) growth forecast for the Hellenic country due to uncertainty there by the fruitless negotiations between the government bailout Syriza and the troika.
In addition, Brussels sends another warning: this provision applies only worsened in the event that finally have an agreement to go ahead with the rescue, if not this economy will be further hampered
.
Still, the agency is optimistic about the Greek economy for 2016, as it provides an improvement in GDP of 2.9 percent.
Spain, at the forefront of growth in the euro region
According to Commission forecasts, by 2015, all EU member states registered positive growth figures except Cyprus (whose economy still down 0.5 percent). The fastest growing countries are Ireland and Malta (both at 3.6 percent).
Among the major economies of the euro, the ranking is headed by Spain (2.8%), Germany (1.9%), France (1.1 %) and Italy (0.6 percent).
In the whole EU, we must also highlight good growth figures for Poland (3.3%) and the UK (2.6 percent).
six states in 2016 to grow by over 3%
Brussels argues that the dynamism of the euro area continue to improve in 2016 and, indeed, for that year promises to grow up to six states above 3 percent. Specifically, these countries are: Ireland (3.5%), Luxembourg (3.5%), Slovakia (3.4%), Lithuania (3.3%), Malta (3.2%) and Latvia (3.2 percent)
. inflation at low levels comes to an end in 2016
The Commission “expects inflation remains close to zero in the first half of 2015, mainly due to the effects of falling prices energy. ” However, it predicts that prices should pick up in the second half of the year and even more in 2016 the strength of domestic demand strengthens, that the effects of the prices of raw materials will fade and the depreciation of the euro caused higher import prices.
In this context, expects annual inflation in the EU and the euro area will increase by 0.1% this year and 1.5% in 2016.
“Slow improvement “unemployment
Brussels also predicts a” slow improvement “in the labor market. The unemployment rate in the EU and the euro area will decline this year, as the improving employment situation will spread to different sectors, reaching respectively 9.6% and 11 percent. In 2016, this trend will be strengthened by improving growth, particularly in countries that have reformed their labor market and the unemployment rate will drop to 9.2% in the EU and 10.5% in the eurozone.
The deficit and debt are adjusted
The budget outlook in the Union and in the euro area “keep getting better” by the adjustments made in recent years and the general economic upturn, says Commission, which estimates that the average deficit in relation to GDP in the EU will be 2.5% in 2015 and 2% in 2016.
Among the nineteen countries that share the euro average of this indicator will put at 2% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016.
According to estimates from Brussels, public debt to GDP in the EU and in the euro area are expected to decline this year and next to stand at 88% in the EU and 94% in the euro area in 2015, to stand at 86.9% and 92.5% respectively in 2016.
Content Red Iberoamericana Economic Press 
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