Expectations for today’s session main events: CPI (Frankfurt: IPEN.F – news) in Spain and Import Price Index in the US
in the United States the price index monthly import of February, is expected to fall to a lesser extent published in January (-0.7% vs -1.1% and above), however, on year could fall at a faster rate, and -6.5% (vs. -6.2% previously).
in Spain, February CPI will know the end where no changes are expected regarding the preliminary figures the overall rate: -0.3% monthly (vs. -1.9% previously) and -0.8% yoy (-0.3 vs previous). In annual terms a slowdown in the underlying rate is expected to + 0.8% (vs. + 0.9% previously)
Financial markets: ECB Stimuli (Toronto: BCE-PA.TO – news). Exceed expectations
Today the opening of European markets will be upwards (Eurostoxx futures + 1.4%) following the erratic movements of yesterday’s session, in which after the ECB stimuli that beat expectations, stock markets initially reacted with strong gains deflating to go and finish the session in negative (or plane in case of Ibex, with the support of banks). Today the focus will be on the economic front, with price data, both in the United States (import prices, which in February could moderate the pace of decline on year to -0.7% and -1.1% vs previous ) and Europe: IPCs late February in Germany (already published, 0% yoy vs. + 0.5% previously) and in Spain (-0.8% and, in line with the preliminary data vs -0.3% previously on year overall, + 0.8% and + 0.9% vs underlying above).
the ECB yesterday announced a series of measures to stimulate economic recovery and bring the fulfillment of its inflation targets facilitating credit and improve liquidity. Cut the deposit rate 10 basis points to -0.4% (without sections given the high complexity of implementing them) and the reference rate to 0% 5 bp. It will increase monthly purchases of debt 20 000 mln eur to 80.000 bln eur from April (so far accumulated purchases in the PSPP than 600,000 mln eur program). And extends the range of assets to be purchased, including non-bank corporate debt from June (investment grade, denominated in euros). Also announced four new TLTROs with maturities of four years, since June 2016 and quarterly, at a cost 0% (with possible reduction in the next TLTRO to the type of deposit depending on how much pay during that period). What has not been extended term is shopping, but they will remain at least until March 2017 (or longer if necessary). Also, Draghi expected official interest rates remain at or below these levels for a long period of time (beyond the period of QE) and leaves the door open to new stimuli for the future. Its new macro forecasts, particularly weak with regard to inflation (see negative inflation in the short term), justify the additional monetary stimulus: 2016 inflation of only 0.1% (1% previously), rebounding to 1.3% (1.6% previously) in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018, still far from the target of 2%. In terms of growth, the ECB expects GDP 2016e + 1.4% (revised down from the previous + 1.7%), accelerating slightly to + 1.7% (+ 1.9% previously) in 2017 and +1 , 8% in 2018.
we believe that the biggest surprise has been in the new TLTROs and conditions, which should stimulate credit while reducing the cost of funding for banks, which has led positively on the sector contributions. The market movements were very erratic: initial reaction was uploaded in equities (+ 3%) but to go to deflate as the session progressed up close with falls in Eurostoxx 1.5% (DAX -2.4% Ibex plane). The same happened in the IRRs, with strong initial fall (10 years Germany -7pb up 0.17%) and then rebound strongly to 0.3%. And way there and back more than the Euro, which ended appreciated more than 3% (although initially depreciated by -1.5% to 1.08, then has come to appreciate to levels close to $ 1.12 / Eur). Behind this behavior could be the fear that less and less room for maneuver for European monetary policy is
Our technical levels are. Ibex 7500 / 8200-9600 / 10,500 in the Eurostoxx 2,500 / 2,800 . 3,700 / 3,900 and S & P 1700 / 1800-2080 / 2,150 points
Main business appointments
Do not include business appointments
Fundamental analysis of the previous session macroeconomic Analysis: German trade balance with balance. less than expected
in the US, initial jobless claims improved to the 259,000 jobs (277,000 vs 275.000ey above).
in Europe, the ECB announced changes in interest rates and the QE (Refer market commentary). In Germany we met January imports which grew at a faster pace than expected + 1.2% (+ 0.8% vs. -1.6% previously y) while exports surprised with a decrease of -0.5% ( + 0.8% vs. -0.7% previously y), and as a result, the trade balance lower than expected, 13.600 bln eur (vs 17.000e mln and 19.000 mln previous revised). In Spain highlights the annual January retail sales, with lower growth December, + 2% (+ 3.2% previously) with the seasonally adjusted rate, growing more than expected, + 3.3% (vs +3, 1% y + 2.2% previously). Finally, in France’s monthly industrial production in January, surprised on the upside, + 1.3% (+ 0.8% vs. -0.6% previously y revised from -1.6%).
Analysis markets: the IBEX 35 index stood out as the only positivethe markets were marked by the decisions of the ECB (Dusseldorf: BCE1.DU – news). Until the meeting market behavior showed slight increases, reflecting ‘the calm before the storm’ that erupted after the announcement of the ECB’s decisions (see commentary on market), which initially totaled rates breakneck way (& gt; + 3%) to end the negative closure of all European indices (Eurostoxx -1.51% -2.31% Dax, Cac -1.70%). The Ibex, only index in positive + 0.07%, supported by the good performance of domestic banks which rose between + 1.5% and + 4.6%. Negative highlights Repsol downs (Amsterdam: RP6.AS – News) (-3.54%), Acerinox (Madrid: ACX.MC – news) (-2.99%) and ACS (Amsterdam: SR6.AS – . news) (-2.83%)
Analysis of companies: Caixabank (Amsterdam: CB6.AS – news) approves the Dividend / Share Program for the year 2016
CaixaBank. The Board of Directors has agreed that shareholder remuneration for fiscal year 2016 will be made by the payment of three cash dividends and scrip dividend under the Dividend / Share Program, maintaining the policy of quarterly remuneration the society. In line with the Strategic Plan 2015-2018, CaixaBank reiterates its intention to pay its shareholders by distributing a cash amount equal to or greater than 50% of consolidated net profit. No news expected impact. Keep.
The portfolio is made up of 5 large Telefónica (20%), Gamesa (20%), Repsol (20%), IAG (20%) and Enagas (20%). The profitability of the portfolio compared with 5 large Ibex in 2016 is -4.67% (relative yields of portfolio Big 5 vs Ibex in previous years: + 5.38% in 2015, -0.75% in 2014, + 17.57% in 2013, + 11% in 2012, + 14% in 2011, + 16% in 2010, + 4% in 2009, -22% in 2008, + 23% in 2007, + 6% in 2006, + 16% in 2005, + 6% in 2004).
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