Leave the European Union (EU) could result in loss of 100,000 million pounds (130,000 million euros) to the UK economy, according to a report by consultancy PwC commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released today.
Analysts believe that the country could lose the equivalent of 5% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the next four years if he leaves the common market after the referendum on membership EU next June 23.
If London break with the Union but reach a free trade agreement with Brussels, the economic impact for the UK would be reduced to 3% of GDP, according to PwC .
According to these scenarios, income per household would be between 2,100 and 3,700 pounds (of 2730-4810 euros) less than in 2020, while the unemployment rate could increase by between 2% and 3%, which would be at risk up to 950,000 jobs.
The analysis argues that economic growth would decline between 2017 and 2020, and could become zero in 2017 or 2018 due to the impact on trade and investments would stop join the European Union.
“This study shows very clearly why leave the Union would be passed back actual standards of living, employment and growth,” said the director general of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn.
“The savings that would have to contribute less to the EU budget and having to comply with fewer regulations I is outweighed by the negative impact,” Fairbairn said.
For the body responsible industry, “even in the best possible scenario would be a serious blow for British finance”.
“The economy would eventually recover over time, but never return to the path of what might have been. Leave the European Union would lead to a very poor economy in 2030,” he said.
analyst Pwc Andrew Sentance said for his part that “Brexit” lead “three strikes” for the UK: “Increased uncertainty, a shock ‘negative for trade and investment, and a workforce reduced by immigration ‘.
“While the potential that reduce regulations and lower tax contributions can be seen as compensation, the net impact of leaving the Union would have negative effects on GDP, the market labor and the standard of living, both short and long term, “Sentance said.
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