MEXICO CITY (approved) .- With everything against -exports not rise, international volatility and a US economy that repunta-, the Mexican economy showed in the first quarter performed better than expected.
This Friday the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported timely estimate of Gross Domestic Product in the first three months of 2016, which recorded an annual increase in economic activity of 2.9% compared the same period in 2015, already seasonally and calendar effects.
and with figures seasonally adjusted also, the quarterly GDP rose 0.8% from the previous quarter (October to December last year), which in terms annualized imply a growth close to 3.2%.
with all data are preliminary and definitive -the will be announced on May 20 próximo-, it is relevant that performance of the economy, since in the first quarter, unlike the first quarter of the previous year there were fewer working days, Easter and bridge the birthday of Benito Juarez.
And so, in the midst of a difficult external environment by uncertainty in the international economy, the weakness of the US economy and the slowdown in the economies of Latin America.
Before the data released today INEGI, analysts, mostly, they were surprised. For some it was the best quarter in six years so far. Others recognized that their expectations were well below the observed data.
For example, analysts of Banamex-Citigroup Group admitted that “economic activity had an encouraging performance during the first quarter, accelerating GDP rate of quarterly and annual growth. “
Signed by Eduardo Gonzalez, analysis of Banamex says:” for the first time in a long time, better than expected imply upside risks to our results recently revised forecast of GDP growth for 2016 of 2.1%. “
also, says Banamex,” considering the original series (without adjustment), GDP increased 2.7% over the same quarter of 2015, 2.5% above the prior year quarter, and higher than our estimate (2.1%) and expected by the consensus (2.4% in the Bloomberg survey) “.
“The services sector was the most dynamic in the first quarter, increasing 3.7% annually, followed by the primary sector (3.0%) and the weak advance of industry (0.7%). “
However, Banamex warns:” it should be noted that the data of today’s report are preliminary and may differ from the figures of the traditional quarterly GDP report, which will be published on may 20 “
on the other hand, the Secretariat of Finance and Public credit (SHCP) gave his own explanation for the better performance of the Mexican economy in the first quarter.
Luis Madrazo, head of the Unit economic Planning of the Ministry of finance, said in press conference -to publicize the report on public finances and debt corresponding to the first trimester was the domestic market which boosted economic activity in the first three months of the year.
“Indeed, we see a very weak external environment, exemplified by the growth data in the US economy that were released, an annualized growth of 0.5% in the first quarter,” he said.
The annual growth of 2.9% reported by the INEGI said, “he speaks of a balance between the primary activities, secondary and tertiary activities activities; the annual growth is 3% for primary activities; 2.2% for secondary activities, which mainly include industrial production and construction, and tertiary activities are those with the best performance, which prominently include the services sector. “
” Then she added , what we see in these data is a combination of pattern we have seen in recent quarters, where the determinants of consumption give strength to domestic consumption, the internal performance of the economy and with particular strength in the service sector. “
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