The off to experience the Spanish economy in 2015 will be supported in the fall of oil and the depreciation of the euro, but you can see troubled by the weakness of the euro and the consequent fall in exports and fragmentation following the elections, according to experts consulted.
The Bank of Spain, in its latest bulletin, recognizes that the trajectory future oil prices, after its collapse in recent weeks surrounding the growth scenario for 2015 of “a high degree of uncertainty” under “risk of diversion” both upwards and downwards.
The recovery of the Spanish economy is tilting more on domestic demand than on exports , a change of pattern over the first years of crisis that will continue in 2015.
In any case, the message of the Government for the coming year is “going to be undoubtedly the consolidation of economic recovery, which already has six quarters of positive growth GDP, “said Efe Secretary of State for Economic and Business Support, Inigo Fernandez de Mesa.
The forecast” conservative “ The Government is the economy will grow by 2% , three tenths above what they think the European Commission, IMF, OECD, but two below what analysts expected as FUNCAS or Intermoney and online with the Bank of Spain.
According to the secretary of state, “the major imbalances that threaten the sustainability at the beginning of the legislature have already been overcome” or, as the president said Government, Mariano Rajoy. “Today we can say that in many respects the crisis is past history”
However, the unemployment which will end the year affecting 24.7% of the active population remains the achilles of the Spanish economy.
“The main objective of economic policy continues being the reduction of unemployment: We expect between 2014 and 2015 will create 800,000 jobs and the unemployment rate will be lower at the end of the legislature at the beginning of it, “said Fernandez de Mesa
.
For the moment, which has in the past approved estimates is that next year the unemployment rate close to 22.9% of the working population, compared to 22.85% with that ended 2011 (the PP took office in December of that year).
For the Executive, the five factors that will drive recovery is the containment of unit labor costs The availability of new credit, the depreciation of the euro, falling energy prices and the “good behavior” construction .
An optimistic vision which coincides Professor of Economics at San Pablo-CEU and director of economic analysis at IE Business School, Rafael Pampillón, who sees the economy growing by 2.5% next year, as told Efe.
In addition to the above aspects, said improved export competitiveness when the euro diversify different geographical areas and reducing taxes from January, which will give more income available to families (9,000 million euros in two years).
As for the drop in oil, despite geopolitical tensions and adverse effects on other parts of the world, especially in Russia, for Spain is “a gift”, assures both because a third of it into the pockets of citizens will move, and because companies will lower costs and higher profits.
But another of the experts consulted, ESADE professor Robert Tornabell, believes that despite the benefits for Spain of lower oil, “this is one of those games lose-lose, lose lose Russia and Europe.”
The “near bankruptcy” of the Russian economy will reduce the number of tourists from that nationality in Spain , which grew at a rate of 30% annually and will to impact including exports, both to the country as other Europeans.
“I see difficult to reach a growth of 2%,” says Tornabell about the prospects of Spanish GDP.
More doubts still says economist José Carlos Díez, for whom the coming year GDP growth will be close to 1.5%, supported by lower oil prices.
is a year that comes to your mind “fraught with uncertainty” , with the risk of third recession and deflation in Europe, added to elections in Spain – regional and municipal general in spring and at the end of exercise- and predictable “political fragmentation” that will follow.
The international environment, with elections in Greece and the possible default on its debt and the situation in Russia led him to think that “if any of these episodes just increasing our risk premium, no risk of relapse.”
Pampillón notes with concern the breakthrough can “an unorthodox game with strange political and generate distrust of foreign investment, which may be ahead all the achievements that have not yet reached the population.”
Tornabell meanwhile admits he is “a little confused” with “very different” statements in this match, in the sense that he first mentioned to Venezuela “as a model” now speak over Scandinavia.
With all this, the “final launch of the Spanish economy” that spoke Rajoy in his year-end balance can be struck by a turbulence of uncertain outcome.
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