A man buys several tenths in the lottery Bello, located in the Plaza del Ayuntamiento de Valencia. / MANUEL Bruque (EFE)
Conservative not quit your job and your physical health worsens, but not mental. That could be the fate of those who win the Gordo Christmas Lottery. From economics to psychology, many have studied why you play something with so little chance of winning as is the lottery and, if so, how it affects the lives of the lucky ones. Their findings are not enough to open a bottle of champagne.
The Extraordinary Sweepstakes Lottery Christmas is unique in the world for its popularity (up to 80% of adults play directly or indirectly) and the symbolism that surrounds it. Although there are many studies on why you play the lottery in Spain, hardly any work (see below) about the fate of their winners. However, science has itself investigated outside of Spain.
What you stop working is one of the most recurrent phrases among those who dream of winning big. But in fact, few do. The broader how it affects a ticket awarded the desire to work study, Swedish researchers conducted two years ago. In Sweden the two forms of official lottery, one managed by the Social Democratic Party, has a double feature: On the one hand, the awards are not taxable, something that does happen in Spain since last year. In addition, winners can not hide, you have to be identified to buy the ticket and the names of the winners will be made public.
That allowed researchers at the University of Gothenburg contact nearly 500 of them. They wanted to know if life had changed them both to stop working. The results are striking. Only 12% sent around their heads while 62% continued to work as usual. The rest or reduced working hours or a temporary leave is requested. And that the average value of the prizes was 200,000 euros and 10% of the sample had earned around one million euros
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Only 12% of lottery winners in Sweden have left the job
Over the trend seems obvious conservatism among those who earn a lot of money suddenly . Professor of the British University of Warwick, Andrew Oswald, is passionate about the lottery. Studied from the health status of the winners to how it affects a rain of pounds to his ideology.
In a study published this year, Oswald and his colleague from the London School of Economics, Nattavudh Powdthavee, showed the relationship between lottery and how to vote. Up to 12% of the winners who were recognized Labour at the next election voted for the Conservatives. However, just the opposite trend occurred. In fact, the higher the prize, the percentage of rightward increased.
“The causes of the political attitudes of individuals are unknown. One possibility is that individual attitudes toward politics and redistribution are motivated by profound ethical convictions, “the researchers said in a note. However, added, “Our study provides empirical evidence that the choice of voting is based on self-interest.”
The Spaniards seem to behave similarly. In one of the few studies that have linked win the lottery and politics in Spain, a study by the Foundation for Applied Economic Studies found a small but significant correlation between where they had played the Christmas Lottery and increased vote by party president in the next election. But the effect is very small, only 0.21%. Also, the longer it takes place the next election, the weight of Gordo is less
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In provinces where it touches the ‘Gordo’ the ruling party receives extra votes in the next election
With that money does not buy happiness, science is divided. Using an official survey that includes questions about your mental health, again the researcher Oswald and another colleague, observed the psychological wellbeing of almost 150 individuals before and after they were awarded the National Lottery with between 1,000 and 100,000 pounds (between 1,278 euros and 127,780 euros). They found that, compared with those who had not won, there was an improvement of 1.4 points on an index of 10. The work, however, already has a decade.
More recently and experiment more robust, another group of British researchers also used the same British Household Survey, this time seeking to find out if winning the lottery affected both psychic and physical health and in what sense. Their results appear paradoxical. On the one hand, confirmed the improvement of mental health found in the work of Oswald. But on the other, they found that winners tend to worsen your lifestyle. For example, they found a correlation between being rewarded and start smoking or drinking more frequently.
The irrationality of buying lottery
“The problem with studies from other countries is that their results can not be transposed to the Christmas Lottery, “says the professor of sociology at the Carlos III University Roberto Garvía. This sociologist is one that has investigated the phenomenon of the lottery but in everything related to it before it touches. “On what winners do with money in Spain there is nothing” laments
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The fear that will touch other makes of drag effect on the Christmas Lottery, economists say
What it does is, and in that participated much Garvía are works studying Spanish exceptionalism. There are countries where prizes can exceed $ 500 million for a single ticket, and the United States, and others, like the UK where the vast majority of the population amateur bets but only in Spain a phenomenon occurs as massive as the Christmas Lottery.
“The peculiarity of Spain is that, especially at Christmas playing in group,” says the sociologist. For basic ideas of economic theory, as risk aversion or maximizing profits, economists say should not be gambling, however, from sociology have an explanation. As Garvía says, “buy a dream, an illusion. There is also the fear that others will not touch you, a fear well exploited by State Lotteries with your ads.” Purchasing insurance you do not going to regret a bad decision, “says the sociologist.
This drag effect is well known by economists. As with fashion, a good is consumed when they consume the other. In this case, an extra number of buyers for fear makes you touch another. “To your neighbors, your coworkers or in the bar downstairs and the announcement of this year,” recalls Levi Pérez, professor of economics University of Oviedo.
With a dozen research published in foreign journals, Perez is one of the Spanish researchers that has analyzed the phenomenon of the lottery from an economic approach. It uses the drag effect to explain so many play so it is an unfair bet.
“The lottery is actually a tax and the hook is the prize” he says. Of all the money it raises this year the state for the sale of tickets, 30% goes to the Treasury. The worst is that, unlike the progressive nature (pay more those most) of the Income Tax, the Gordo is a regressive tax. All studies in Spain and elsewhere show that lottery buyers tend to be lower-middle class and lower educational level. “If you play the most are those with less income, then it is the poor who hold the lottery” argues economist.
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