Sunday, May 17, 2015

SPAIN: C & oacute; mo invest in a scenario of m & aacute; Xima … – EntornoInteligente

SPAIN <- - AUGURE_NOTICIA_INICIO!>: How to invest in a scenario of maximum volatility / Cinco Dias / The outcome of the municipal and regional elections on Sunday May 24 can anticipate a scenario of ungovernability in Spain. The emergence of new political forces, the difficulty in forming governments and the implementation of radical measures that capital would flee and increased volatility. While surveys do not point in this direction, the investor should keep in mind what you can do if this scenario occurs.

“If the left parties like we were the most voted, would fear on the part of foreign investors, for their similarity with what happened in Greece. The risk premium could rebound to a great extent, while the equity would contract by the fear of higher taxes to entities and possible new regulatory framework, for example, the energy sector or even any nationalization, “says Victoria Tower, analyst Self Bank.

How can a small investor should react in this context? Experts are betting on deposits, conservative and income funds short-term fixed investment as the most appropriate assets. Gold, which once was an active prized shelter, is now ruled by the corrections it has experienced in recent years and its over-reliance on speculative investments.

Direct investment in bond s, it was also a good alternative for troubled times, it is not recommended by financial advisers. The expansionary monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank (ECB) has been fixed at very low levels of income profitability, and this month has seen the value of such assets may be much stronger than desirable oscillations .

The only advantage that would have the small saver in a scenario of maximum volatility is low inflation. “With prices falling at a rate to be around -0.5%, get a return of 1% to 2% may be more than satisfactory for a conservative investor profile,” explains Juan Manuel Casadevall, partner at Kessler & amp; Casadevall.

Deposits

The time deposits offered by an average of 0.44% a year to 12 months, but in the market there is an alternative that achieves greater profitability, especially in for new money deposits, deposits of foreign banks and funds despósitos combined.

Welcome Openbank Deposit offers a yield of 2% APR, but only during the first three months, and has no cancellation fee or a minimum amount to open it. ING Direct also offers a similar product, income 1.9% APR for the first three months.

Banco Mediolanum has a more interesting proposition, but for a much higher level of investment. The firm offers 1.7% APR for a deposit to six months, provided that at least 100,000 euros intended.

The limitations of the bank to offer its customers extratipados deposits have made the alterative financial institutions seek ways to provide a point of profitability to its customers. One of the most heavily used routes are structured deposits which combine a fixed-term investment fund. Thus, the Combined Investment Duo, Openbank, invests 50% and 50% in fixed deposit for 13 months to 1.25% APR, with a minimum investment of 1,500 euros.

Bankinter marketed until 21 May and from 1,000 euros a deposit referenced to BBVA and Telefonica. The term is 1.5 years. If the two values ​​are maintained or increased, an annual return of 1.32% will be paid; otherwise 0.13%.

Backgrounds

In a scenario of maximum volatility, small investors can also find shelter in very conservative investment funds. Families guaranteed and classic bond funds are discarded given the scant yield offered by bonds, but the managers have some alternatives.

Felipe Lería, commercial director of UBP believes that a good alternative to are traditional fixed income funds investing in convertible bonds. Since April 1, this category of funds has made progress by 0.11%, while the set of bond funds have had a loss of 1.4%. Also recommended bet on funds that invest in bonds with floating coupon indexed to inflation.

Another good option, which increasingly large market more entities are profiled funds. Opportunity and Choice ranges, La Caixa; The Select range, Santander AM, and funds BBVA Quality products have very conservative profile, investing through funds of funds, and can be an excellent retreat.

Short-term Bonds

The debt market would be the most affected would be seen by a scenario of volatility. “Any uncertainty in a country, whether political, economic or social, usually causes the market negatively reacted to the debt of that country. Therefore, if there is a highly fragmented in the election results, will affect negatively the Spanish bond” points Alfonso de Gregorio, managing director Gesconsult.

A recent Nomura points out that so far Spain has been perceived as a “model pupil” in economic policies implemented and that if we were to become an influential political force, and even if you come into the government market would be very aware of if he can impose policies that reject detailed opinions Brussels, which could descadenar a risk of infection.

If that it were to cause the uncontrolled risk premium, experts recommend taking positions in short-term bonds, for not taking a very high risk and time to better adapt to a fluctuating environment. . Although in the past emissions of treasury bills to six months rates have been negative, in a scenario of maximum volatility types should rally hard and could eventually offer attractive coupons

Other THREATS: Greece and the Fed monetary policy Regardless of what happens in municipal and regional elections next weekend, there are other factors that could trigger a very complicated scenario for the markets. The breakdown of negotiations between Greece and the European institutions, who had just precipitated his departure from the euro, together with an unexpected rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve of the United States, would be a blow to the Stock Exchanges and hard tensaría debt markets.

Greece “If Greece had just leaving the euro would be the same as the Lehman case for the United States,” recalls Santiago Satrústegui president Abas Advisors. “Clearly it causes a contagion effect on other countries in southern Europe, but we think that scenario is unlikely because the main losers would be the Greeks themselves. In addition, most want to stay in the EU, so if the government wants to break the deck would have to propose a referendum and, if lost, call new elections, “he explains. The deadline for the Government of Alexis Tsipras agreed upon a list of reforms to date is contented to Brussels in late June. Further, Athens will run margin and the European Commission, the IMF BCEy freeze funds pending disbursement of the second bailout (7,200 million euros), which itself towards the country into bankruptcy.

Rises rate in the US

The president of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, is committed to the market will not be surprised when you start to raise interest rates, but there is not trust. For many experts, the recovery of the world economy has relied excessively on monetary policies of the major central banks. Once the US economy no longer has that support, the implications could be higher than expected. In any case, “the normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will be compensated by the current provision of liquidity by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)”, explains the manager Schroders. One of the direct consequences of the rise in interest rates the Fed is that further weaken the euro, which in all likelihood he would go to parity with the dollar.

Information Cinco Dias

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